Housing Downturn: Optimism Races Ahead of the Data – Housing Market Review (April, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB) gained 4.2% and closed at a 2-month high.

Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more

Culture of Collapse: More Wipe-outs in Housing-Related Stocks

The grinding bear market in financial markets has quickly created what I am calling “A Culture of Collapse.” The collapse is on vivid display in the stocks of home builders and other related housing and construction stocks. I cataloged the collapse in housing-related stocks that took on dramatic form two days ago. The iShares Dow … Read more

Book Value Home Builders Belie The Stock Market’s Stellar Q3

The S&P 500 (SPY) printed its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2013. While the index gained 7.2% for the third quarter of 2018, home builders went in the exact opposite direction. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) tumbled 7.4% for Q3 and is now down a whopping 20.9% year-to-date. The selling accelerated … Read more

Housing Market Review (July, 2018) – A Wobbly Edifice As Builders Break Down And Data Weaken

I saw a flicker of hope for home builders in the May Housing Market Review. Traders decided to snuff that flicker out very quickly afterward. When I wrote June’s housing market review and described a “struggling flicker,” the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was once again bouncing off the bottom of 2018’s trading range. … Read more

Housing Market Review (January, 2018) – Breakdown

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in December, 2017 for November, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) was still recovering from a small dip caused by an earnings report from Toll Brothers (TOL) that disappointed the market. Housing data were strong and pointed to on-going bullishness. January launched … Read more

California Housing Crisis Means Tri Pointe Is Not Worried About Tax Reform

Tri Pointe Group (TPH) was the last home builder stock I sold as a part of my last cycle of home builder investments. It was also my longest-standing holding; I only exited after the sell-off inspired by the first release of details for tax reform stopped me out of the stock. The stock had a … Read more

Housing Market Review (November, 2017) – A Tax-Driven Day of Angst Transforms Into Another Unrelenting Rally

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in October, 2017 for September, 2017. At the time, I lamented having too small an exposure to home builders while the entire sector rallied nearly non-stop. I was counting on seasonal patterns to deliver at least one buyable dip ahead of the seasonally strong period starting in … Read more

Home Builders Buckle Under Tax Reform – Reviewing the Damage

In my last review of the housing market, I ran out of time to comment on an emphatic statement from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) regarding its failure to influence the Republican plan for tax reform. The tax plan coming out of the GOP side of the House of Representatives includes a provision … Read more

Housing Market Review – Stocks Racing Away from Swirling Data (October, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September, 2017 for August, 2017. At the time, I described a growing rift between the data and the stocks of home builders. Instead of stumbling, housing stocks received a fresh breath of life and kicked up the momentum another notch higher in October. The iShares U.S. … Read more

Housing Market Review – A Notable Change In Tone (August, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in July, 2017 for June, 2017. The month from there marked a significant change in tone for home builders. The change in tone starts with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and its failure to hold support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first … Read more