ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Housing Market Intro and Summary The seasonal trade on home builders ended in the middle of one of those critical junctures for these stocks and the housing market in general. Mortgage rates are done coming down for now and could break to new highs as the Federal Reserve continues hiking short-term rates to battle inflation. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Was the second trading day of February the peak for the S&P 500? After a 1.4% gain nearly finished reversing the losses from last August’s Jackson Hole, the index lost momentum. While the index churned for the following 2 weeks, trashed stocks from 2022 continued to soar. Even that momentum seemed to … Read more
Redfin Corporation (RDFN) joined a slowly growing list of companies announcing layoffs. In a heartfelt blog post, CEO Glenn Kelman explained “I’m sorry we can’t keep our commitment to you. With May demand 17% below expectations, we don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff, and fewer sales leaves us with less money … Read more
The Follow-Through Intro The biggest follow-through trades from “Key Stock Sectors Missed A Breakout In Market Breadth – Above the 40” (June 11, 2021) erupted in the housing-related plays. Big cap tech looks more ready than ever to reestablish its leadership position over the market. The stock market had an initial negative reaction to the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market struggled for months against the downtrend line on market breadth. The struggle ended last week. My favorite technical indicator of breadth AT40 (T2108) broke out and closed the week at 61.9%. Now I start a countdown toward a test of the overbought threshold. However, several sectors dampened the week’s … Read more
I heard this tweet referenced twice in the financial media: the first time unsourced and the second time sourced. I must assume that the bizarre data points of the U.S. housing market from Glenn Kelman, Redfin’s CEO, went viral. Redfin’s commentary and observations on the housing market are typically astute and insightful, but this particular … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market is a cauldron of contradictions and divergences. Breakdowns below key support levels abound. Stocks suffer post-earnings fades even after companies report strong results, especially in both beaten up growth stocks and resilient big cap tech. Yet, the S&P 500 just rises above the steady erosion of market breadth with … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A little over a month after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the housing market would soon normalize, mortgage rates have increased and the stocks of home builders have generally gone nowhere. The National Association of Realtors projected much stronger growth in existing home sales this year than in … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In recent months a divergence in the housing market emerged between rangebound home builder stocks and strong housing data. In October, new home sales recorded a third straight month at the 1 million mark. Since new home sales hit an August peak, the stocks of home builders have also largely … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market quickly moved away from its close call with overbought conditions to pulling off a refresher for extended overbought conditions. The acquiescence of President Trump in signing a heavily negotiated, highly contentious pandemic relief bill seemed to provide the spark for the buying in the major indices. The Stock Market … Read more