Housing Downturn: Optimism Races Ahead of the Data – Housing Market Review (April, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB) gained 4.2% and closed at a 2-month high.

Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more

A Time To Sell Some Housing Stocks

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have spent a lot of time over the past four years touting the attractiveness of stocks in homebuilders. The ride has offered a lot of bumps along the way but … Read more

A Potentially Important Shift In Income Demographics for Home Loans

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have written before that home builders have focused on building for higher income buyers and mortgage financing has been restricted to the well-off. It turns out things are not quite … Read more

Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey Reveals Optimism Amongst Young People

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Aug 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In the past few weeks, we have read articles and studies describing the delayed household formation of younger Americans. I covered them in “The Housing Recovery Will Proceed Even With The … Read more

Credit Conditions for Housing Continue to Tighten

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 27, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In December of 2012, I provided a description of the housing recovery from the eyes of mortgage investors who could see the recovery but worried about tightening credit conditions. Six months … Read more

Market Trends Continue To Swirl Inconsistently Around Rising Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The mixed signals from financial markets continue as interest rates continue to climb. In fact, the steady rise in rates is the main feature within a swirl of inconsistent patterns. The … Read more

Incremental Improvement Continues for U.S. Mortgages

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 28, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) just released its report on mortgage performance for the fourth quarter of 2012. It is a story of mortgages that continue to … Read more

From Silicon Valley to Florida – Two Extremes In A Recovering Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I still believe that a bottom is coming for housing in 2013. Some areas of the country, like the Silicon Valley area of Northern California, have already left a bottom far … Read more

Vertical Capital Income Fund Offers Attractive Alternative for Investing In Mortgages

In late January, I made the case for investing in Dynex Capital (DX) as one way to bet on a recovery for housing starting that I believe will begin in earnest next year. DX had dipped at the time on news of a stock offering to raise more capital. As anticipated, DX did eventually recover … Read more

The Comeback for LPS Continues Even After Earnings Disappoint

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) When Lender Processing Services (LPS) reported fourth quarter and full 2011 earnings on February 13, the company provided downside guidance on earnings and revenues. When the stock opened 6% lower, it … Read more