Weakening Overbought Conditions Greet the New Year – Above the 40 (December 31, 2020)

Stock Market Commentary The extended overbought period still looks tenuous. For the second trading day in a row, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), broke down below the overbought threshold of 70% before closing at 73.0%. The major indices do not reveal these weakening overbought conditions. The … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market With Plenty of Downside Risk – Above the 40 (September 23, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 19.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold)AT200 = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 28.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary On Monday I switched to a neutral short-term trading call to get mentally ready for a major change … Read more

Stock Market Buyers Counter Sellers With Their Own Line in the Sand – Above the 40 (May 15, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 56.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 14.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 31.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The week began with sellers finally drawing a line in the sand. The week ended with a counter from … Read more

The Power of 100: Nike, Carmax, and Starbucks

I believe there is an old Wall Street adage that describes the inevitability of a stock hitting $100 once it gets “close enough” to that price level. One hundred is a nice round number, and it looks like a major (psychological) milestone. So when both Nike (NKE) and Carmax (KMX) suffered post-earnings pullbacks from around … Read more

Nike Kicks Into High Gear Relative to Amazon.com

In early November, I wrote about Nike (NKE) ending its partnership with Amazon.com (AMZN) in a post titled “Nike Kicks Amazon.com Into Bearish Territory.” I gave the bullish case for NKE, a bearish case for AMZN, and a wildcard case for the “innocent” bystander Footlocker (FL). Here is an update on what happened in the … Read more

Nike Kicks Amazon.com Into Bearish Territory

Amazon.com (AMZN) lost 1.4% on a drop below its 50DMA on the way toward a reversal of the post-earnings recovery.

A Failed Pilot “…with a direct partnership, Nike will be able to ‘elevate the way the brand is presented’ by gaining more control over how its products are marketed on the site…” Former Nike CEO Mark Parker quoted in CNN Business (June 29, 2017) In 2017, the Nike (NKE) pilot with Amazon.com (AMZN) held a … Read more

T2108 Update (September 25, 2015) – Stock Market Skirts Oversold Conditions As IBB Plunges On Record Volume

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Simple Calculus for the Timing of The Fed’s First Rate Hike

“…I expect that inflation will return to 2 percent over the next few years as the temporary factors that are currently weighing on inflation wane, provided that economic growth continues to be strong enough to complete the return to maximum employment and long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate … Read more

Chart Review: Nike Breakout, Apple Breakdown

Nike (NKE) Just 6 months ago, Nike (NKE) posted earnings that disappointed investors to the tune of a 9.4% one-day drop. That drop was unusually large for NKE, but it printed the stock’s low for 2012. The stock steadily ground its way higher and filled its gap down within a month. NKE next stalled at … Read more

Sifting Through the Rubble of Retail High-Flyers for Potential Trades – Long and Short

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The HOLDRS Retail ETF (RTH) made new all-time highs in late July, and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has remained in a trading range since failing a retest of its … Read more