Bitcoin: A False $12K Breakout Creates the Pause That Refreshes

Trees do not grow to the sky – even cryptocurrency trees with Bitcoin leaves. The old adage describes a core rule of the physics of price momentum. Whether buying or selling, traders and investors eventually exhaust themselves – whether existing resources are too low to maintain buying pressure or motivated sellers finally run out of … Read more

Nutanix: A Stock and Company Ready for a Takeover

The weekly chart for Nutanix (NTNX) shows an on-going downtrend since the June, 2018 all-time high.

Nutanix (NTNX) is an IT infrastructure company that helps its customers “modernize their datacenters and run applications at any scale, on-prem and in the cloud.” The stock peaked in June, 2018 after a 13-month, 310% run-up from an all-time low. The March, 2020 stock market crash briefly took NTNX to a new all-time low. Even … Read more

Stock Market Snaps Out of Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (July 15, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary I anticipated a shallow sell-off for a downward resolution to the bearish divergence in the stock market. However, … Read more

A Two-Speed Stock Market Downshifts Into A Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (July 10, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a 2 1/2 – month low the previous day at 34.9%)AT200 = 26.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A strange and two-speed market got even … Read more

A Two-Speed Stock Market Remains on Edge – Above the 40 (July 2, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2-month low)AT200 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 34.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The damage in the stock market the previous week looked strong enough to eventually take trading conditions … Read more

Bitcoin: Latest Price Failures Plant Me On the Sidelines

Price Failures The furious rally in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from the March lows helped take my mind off the on-going downtrend in price. Since the last major peak in price at $13,880 on June 26, 2019, BTC/USD has made a series of lower highs and lower lows. The last peak in price was on May 7th … Read more

Crash Culture – A Warning In Negative Oil Prices – Above the 40 (April 20, 2020)

AT40 = 30.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 43.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The culture of collapse that has accompanied the coronavirus pandemic reached new lows. The on-going collapse in oil prices reached new … Read more

Green Shoots Push Into the Next Downtrend Threatening to Trample Stocks – Above the 40 (March 27, 2020)

AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more

A Cook, A Hostess, and A Busy Friday Morning: A Case for Dine Brands (IHOP)

Dine Brands Global Inc. (DIN) lost 10.1% a day after confirming a breakout from the primary downtrend defined by the lower Bollinger Bands (BBs)

It is hard to imagine now, but the U.S. consumer economy will rebound. When it does, these current days will look like a time of incredible bargains. One of the many challenges of buying in the middle of panic and an economic calamity is finding companies that are durable and worth the risk of an … Read more

Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more