Crash Culture – A Warning In Negative Oil Prices – Above the 40 (April 20, 2020)

AT40 = 30.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 43.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The culture of collapse that has accompanied the coronavirus pandemic reached new lows. The on-going collapse in oil prices reached new … Read more

Canadian Dollar: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Interrupts A Recovery

Canadian Dollar After the Bank of Canada announced its latest update on monetary policy, the U.S. dollar gained about 1.7% on the Canadian dollar. I thought perhaps the Bank of Canada delivered some incredibly awful news. Nothing in the statement was a surprise. Indeed, the Bank of Canada essentially suggested it would not take rates … Read more

Green Shoots Push Into the Next Downtrend Threatening to Trample Stocks – Above the 40 (March 27, 2020)

AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more

Resilience Cracks: Market’s Bearish Divergence Ends In Topping Pattern – Above the 40 (January 24, 2020)

AT40 = 52.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday, January 16th. The breakout quickly turned into a bust with AT40 (T2108), … Read more

New Pressures for the Stock Market Despite Fade in Concerning Signals – Above the 40 (September 27, 2019)

AT40 = 61.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 17.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Conditionally Bearish Breakdown Friday’s trading action triggered my prime condition for flipping bearish. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

The Canadian Dollar Pushes Past A Dovish Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada released its latest pronouncement on monetary policy on the heels of a rapid rally for the Canadian dollar (FXC). USD/CAD was down 5 straight days going into the release of the January, 2019 Monetary Policy Report. Four of five of those days delivered substantial declines. The Bank provided a truncated summary … Read more

Above the 40 (November 7, 2018) – Exclamation Points for the End of Oversold Trading Conditions

AT40 = 40.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.4 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Financial markets made their votes very clear after the U.S. 2018 midterm election. via GIPHY Apparently, today’s rally in the S&P 500 … Read more

A Recharge for the Canadian Dollar Bull

A little over a week ago, I explained why I put the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar (FXC) on shorter leashes. Canada’s extremely strong second quarter GDP report at the end of August just loosened that leash a little. Statistics Canada reported 2Q real GDP growth of 1.1%. The annualized growth rate of 4.5% … Read more

A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End

One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic. On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald … Read more