Above the 40 (January 22, 2019) – Overbought Conditions Abruptly End In A Flurry of Tests of Support

AT40 = 66.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 1-day overperiod)AT200 = 24.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 20.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Days like these remind me of the importance of technicals. Just one trading day after surging into overbought trading territory, the stock … Read more

Above the 40 (January 18, 2019) – Index Breakouts Propel the Stock Market Into Overbought Territory

AT40 = 76.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 27.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (6-week high)VIX = 17.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I noted in my last post that the signs of exhaustion in the major indices gave way to more … Read more

Above the 40 (January 16, 2019) – Financials and Small Caps Pushing Market the Last Mile to Overbought

AT40 = 61.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (near 5-month high)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (1-month high)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The signs of exhaustion in the major indices have given way to more and more breakouts. Most importantly, AT40 … Read more

Above the 40 (January 9, 2019) – Stocks Make Important Breakouts Even As Indices Face Major Tests

AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1-month high)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (3-week high)VIX = 20.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Just as the last oversold period exceeded expectations to an extreme downside, the rebound out of the oversold period is … Read more

Strong Sales for LGI Homes Set Up Earnings Reports for Lennar and KB Home

LGI Homes (LGIH) released a strong sales report that granted investors in home builders a much needed sigh of relief. On January 7, 2019 (mislabeled as the 4th in the press release), LGIH announced: …an all-time record for home closings during a single month with 884 homes closed in December 2018, representing year-over-year growth of … Read more

Above the 40 (January 4, 2019) – The Oversold Chronicles End As A Fed-Inspired Stock Market Explodes Higher

AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary All oversold periods must end – it is just a matter of how and … Read more

Above the 40 (January 2, 2019) – A Fighting Start for Stocks Gets Apple Pie in the Yen

AT40 = 11.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #12)AT200 = 12.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 23.2Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary $AUDJPY $AUDUSD $GBPJPY flash crashed. Could this ALL be #forex fallout from $AAPL revenue warning!?! pic.twitter.com/WZS10wj7D9 — … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more

Above the 40 (December 24, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: An Epic Reversal, Historic Depths, and an End to Hubris

AT40 = 3.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #7, 10-year low!)AT200 = 8.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (9 1/2- year low!)VIX = 36.1 (1-day gain of 20.0%, 10 1/2- month high)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (oh so many caveats below!) Commentary Although it’s been … Read more

Above the 40 (December 19, 2018) – A Fed Undeterred Is A Stock Market Not Yet Low Enough

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #4)AT200 = 14.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX = 25.6 (no change!)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary On Tuesday night, basketball great LeBron James, now of the Los Angeles Lakers, experienced an … Read more