Cocoa: A Bear Market in Prices Brings Fresh Opportunity

Cocoa prices have plunged along with the pandemic-driven crash in global financial markets. The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN (NIB) reached a closing peak on February 13th just ahead of the global pandemic crisis. Since then, NIB is down 23.8%, a bear market in cocoa. Per my buy-the-dip strategy in NIB, this is … Read more

Cocoa: The End of a Breakout Starts A Buying Opportunity

The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) has sold off for 6 of the last 7 trading days on extremely high volume. Friday's 1.2% loss took NIB to its 200DMA support.

A Breakout and Reversal The price of cocoa has had a wild two months. Last month’s breakout quickly turned into a fade and an outright sell-off in December. The result for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) is a complete reversal of the breakout, a return to the bottom of the previous consolidation range, … Read more

Cocoa’s Price Surge Confirmed By Historic Supply Coordination

Two years ago, I wrote about the announcement from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicating that cocoa-growing countries would coordinate production of cocoa to better support their economies. That news was soon followed by a recommendation from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to cocoa producers to find ways to control the supply of cocoa. At … Read more

Cocoa: Ivory Coast Supply News Sets Up Buying Opportunity

Time for me to buy iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) again. NIB gapped down to start the week at least partially on the news of a surplus from the Ivory Coast. From Reuters: Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 1.547 million tonnes between Oct. 1 and March 3, exporters estimated … Read more

Cocoa Records Strong 2018 Gains… Almost By An Accident of the Calendar

Almost three years ago, I seized on an opportunity to buy iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) after it sold off steeply from a strong 2015. In that year, cocoa ripped ahead of the rest of the commodity space which declined 19% in 2015 while cocoa rallied 10%. In 2018, cocoa was another strong performer. CNBC … Read more

Cocoa Prices Drop On Optimism for the 2018/2019 Main Crop Season

The price of cocoa has been in near freefall again. The picture-perfect bounce for iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) from its support at 200-day moving average (DMA) reversed into a recent 200DMA breakdown and a convincing breakdown below the June low. Source: As usual, a flurry of news exists that helps explain at … Read more

A Fresh Top in Cocoa

It did not take long. Two days after I identified a Bollinger Band squeeze on iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), the technical chart pattern resolved to the downside. NIB has lost 11.9% over this time. Source: At current levels, NIB has confirmed a top from its 19-month high: a breakdown below the 50-day … Read more

A Cocoa Surprise: Prices Spring Back to Life

In commodities, the time to get bullish is usually when prices are pressuring the industry and sentiment is persistently and deeply negative. The time to get bearish is usually when prices are skyrocketing, industry participants are celebrating wondrous fortunes, and sentiment is as euphoric as can be. Since I am long-term bullish on cocoa, I … Read more