ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
In a press release titled “‘No Lump Sum Required at the End of Forbearance’ says FHFA’s Calabria” the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) sought to reassure home owners that they will not risk defaulting on their homes coming out of a mortgage forbearance program. The forbearance program gives home owners relief from paying their mortgage … Read more
“…if not for the pandemic, the strong momentum going into the Spring may have actually sent confidence higher still. Instead, confidence will undoubtedly plunge in the next report. The consumer sentiment index plunged to a 4-year low as a leading indicator of where builder confidence will go.” Housing Downturn: Put Spring’s Momentum On the Shelf … Read more
AT40 = 24.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 31-day oversold period)AT200 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support … Read more
Given my interest in the housing market and housing-related stocks, I have followed the culture of collapse in the mortgage REIT (real estate investment trust) sector with a mixture of horror, dread, astonishment…and buying interest. Some companies in this sector have already gone out of business thanks to aggressive margin calls during the worst part … Read more
AT40 = 4.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (28th oversold day)AT200 = 5.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 46.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary First, another dose of hope and a light reminder of the seriousness of … Read more
It seems like an eternity has passed since LGI Homes (LGIH) reported yet one more bullish home closings report. For February, LGIH reported a year-over-year increase in home closings of 54.2% and a year-over-year increase of 57.1% in January and February combined. With another home closings report due soon, it looks like the stock market … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The housing market has become a lot more dynamic than usual, so over the past few months I have written more pieces beyond the monthly housing market review. The current economic crisis coming from the coronavirus pandemic has increased my frequency of coverage. The most telling moments came when I wrote to … Read more
The change was swift and dramatic. In mid-February, Redfin (RDFN) delivered a very bullish earnings report proclaiming it’s on “like Donkey Kong.” In the face of nascent concerns about the coronavirus (covid-19) threat, on March 11th Redfin (RDFN) delivered a semi-reassuring press release titled “Housing Demand Holding Up Surprisingly Well, For Now.” Two weeks and … Read more
AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more
AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more