Chasing the Outperformance of Home Builders

outperformance (Credit: Dr. Duru at the Charles Shultz Museum)

I assumed the seasonal trade on home builders came to an end some time in May. However, the tailwinds lifting builders higher remain as strong as ever. This strength and outperformance has confused and confounded those assuming higher interest rates would mean disaster for the housing market and an eventual recession. A recent upgrade for … Read more

How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern

seasonal pattern home builders (Credit: Housing Market by free pictures of money on Flickr)

Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season represents the year’s peak of home sales. During this time, households try to settle into a new home before summer travel or well ahead of the Fall start to the next school year. The stocks of home builders also approximate a seasonal … Read more

The NAHB Finally Declares That the Housing Market Is Slowing

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) was just about as bearish on the housing market as it allows itself to get. In its latest press release on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), the NAHB declared “…the housing market is now slowing.” The HMI plunged from 77 to 69 in a sign that … Read more

Seasonal Trade In Housing-Related Stocks Launches with Key Tests

This week’s housing data were impressive. The Housing Market Index (HMI) for October reported another all-time for home builder sentiment. Subsequently, starts for single-family homes hit a fresh 13-year high. Yet, the stock market yawned. Housing-related stocks demonstrated rare signs of weakness not seen in a long time. Several stocks suffered breakdowns below their respective … Read more

How to Invest in the Soaring Rate of U.S. Homeownership

Accelerating Homeownership Rates The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated many trends that were underway going into 2020. Rising homeownership rates in the U.S. hopped onto the trend. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Homeownership Rate for the United States [RSAHORUSQ156S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; July 29, 2020. The above (adjustable) graph shows the … Read more

Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020 (advanced estimate) plunged by 4.8% as the coronavirus pandemic put the economy on lockdown. The following categories made positive contributions to GDP in ascending order of their contribution to the percentage change: Housing and utilities: .08% Change in farm inventories: 0.10% Government consumption expenditures … Read more

LGI Homes: Strong Guidance Builds Hope Against the Housing Downturn

“Despite the challenging environment we encountered at the end of the first quarter, our business was stronger in April than we had originally expected and we are seeing positive momentum in recent sales trends that leads us to believe the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic may be less severe than we had originally expected. We … Read more

Housing Downturn 2020: Redfin Transitions from Hopeful to Defensive

The change was swift and dramatic. In mid-February, Redfin (RDFN) delivered a very bullish earnings report proclaiming it’s on “like Donkey Kong.” In the face of nascent concerns about the coronavirus (covid-19) threat, on March 11th Redfin (RDFN) delivered a semi-reassuring press release titled “Housing Demand Holding Up Surprisingly Well, For Now.” Two weeks and … Read more

The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks

First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the … Read more

Redfin 2020: “It’s On Like Donkey Kong”

“RedfinNow is buying homes aggressively. Our sellers’ agents are pushing hard to get more money for listing customers. And our buyers’ agents are making offers left and right, but still feel wary about how many will actually stick. It’s going to be a wild ride… RedfinNow is really scrambling to buy as many homes as … Read more