Market Calm Shattered – Tariff Shock Hits S&P’s Critical Support – The Market Breadth

AT50 (MMFI) confirmed overbought resistance and closed the gap higher from the China trade war ceasefire. This rejection is bearish by itself but support for the indices remains intact.

Stock Market Commentary A market calm emerged thanks to a pause on reciprocal tariffs and then a ceasefire in the US vs China trade war. This market calm shattered as a new tariff shock came in the form of President Trump threatening the European Union (EU) with a 50% tariff while at the same time … Read more

Overbought Trading Conditions, Yet Still Bullish – The Market Breadth

Overbought Trading Conditions, Yet Still Bullish

Stock Market Commentary We made it through another week without any major negative headlines impacting the stock market. Although late-breaking news took futures down due to Moody’s dropping the U.S. from its top credit rating, marking the loss of the last top-tier assessment of U.S. government debt, I expect the market impact to be minimal. … Read more

In A Bear Market There Is NO SUPPORT! – The Market Breadth

In A Bear Market There Is No Support

Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more

A Lazy Holiday Week Sets Up December Buys – The Market Breadth

The S&P 500 (SPY) began to stagnate but still hit new all-time highs.

Stock Market Commentary Holiday trading last week was deceptively lazy. The indices did a lot of churning, yet the S&P 500 and the ETF of small caps each made all-time highs at some point. A good number of individual stocks developed and followed through on bullish setups. For example, all week long, new highs greatly … Read more

Did Retail Save the Market from An NVDA Hangover? – The Market Breadth

The SPDR SP Retail ETF (XRT) bounced away from 50DMA support and provided relief from an NVDA hangover.

Stock Market Commentary A plunge in market breadth on Wednesday made me expect a more bearish take on the markets for my next blog post. A sharp rebound led by strong earnings from various retail companies, quickly changed the narrative from a continued NVDA hangover to a bullish divergence and then a bullish setup. Friday’s … Read more

A VIX Follow-Through Confirms Bearish Signal – The Market Breadth

bear market breakthrough (Credit: Breakthrough by -RobW- from Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary Last week was a week like few other for the volatility index, the VIX. In my last Market Breadth I made the case for the VIX mattering again. A VIX follow-through demonstrated even more strength and resilience. The resulting closing high for the year is a firmer bearish signal for the stock … Read more

All Hail NVIDIA and A New Market Call – The Market Breadth

All Hail NVIDIA

Stock Market Commentary There is a deepening irony in my on-going bearishness on the stock market. The sector most visibly responsible for the anti-bearish animal spirits leaning against poor market breadth is the same sector I remain unapologetically bullish about: Artificial Intelligence (AI). The ironic contrast was in full display last week as the bullish … Read more

A Path of Least Resistance Offers A Reprieve – The Market Breadth

path of least resistance (Credit: The path of least resistance by Eduardo Mueses on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: Yesterday’s surge in the Japanese yen (FXY) may have exhausted enough sellers to clear the path for some holiday cheer in the stock market. Suddenly, the market seemed to transition from the heavy burdens of a stubbornly hawkish Fed to the alluring hopes from a lack of (scheduled) negative catalysts for the … Read more

Blink And You Missed the Latest Oversold Period – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary: The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its May policy meeting. While reporting on the minutes suggest the content contained nothing new, the stock market found rally material anyway. Perhaps it was a relief rally from the fallout in social media stocks. The broad-based buying pushed the stock market out of a … Read more

Stock Chart Reviews – A Telling Mosaic from All-Time Lows to Breakouts

Stock Market Commentary The stock market is scraping by just above oversold territory. The churn of last week has created a mosaic different trading conditions. The bears are salivating at the all-time lows. The hopefuls like me are finding slivers of opportunity in the breakouts. The stock charts in this review cover some of everything. … Read more