A Slowing Housing Boom, Not A Crash – Housing Market Review (July, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary “When will the housing market crash?” I hear this question from people astounded by the housing market’s strong performance during the pandemic. The housing market is not heading into a crash anytime soon. Demand remains strong, inventories are scarce, mortgage rates are rock bottom, home buyers are in strong financial … Read more

Housing Activity Continues to Normalize Back to Annual Sales Trends – Housing Market Review (January, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary “…the level of housing activity is at its highest level since before the global financial crisis in some measure. So we’ve had a very strong rebound in housing. Some of the tightness in housing markets — which has led to the significant price increases this year — we think is … Read more

Overbought Trading Conditions Emerge from Rush for Pandemic Recovery Stocks – Above the 40 (November 10, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #1 overbought) AT200 = 66.9%% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and confirmed breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 24.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The week of … Read more

Divergence in the Housing Market: Slowing Stocks vs Soaring Data – Housing Market Review (October, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary A divergence in the housing market is emerging between slowing home builder stocks and strong housing data. The housing boom in the U.S. continued to make its mark in the middle of the pandemic-induced recession. While new home sales took a bit of a pause in October, housing starts, existing … Read more

How to Trade the Seasonal Patterns for Home Builder Stocks

The Spring selling season is a critical period for the housing market and usually delivers peak activity for the year. This seasonal pattern forms a notable pivot for the stocks of home builders. These stocks typically rally on the wings of optimism going into Spring. This rally is often strong enough to outpace the S&P … Read more

Housing Market Review – All About the New Home Sales (May, 2016)

The last Housing Market Review covered data released in March, 2016. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was accompanying the market on an extended rally from the February lows. Resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) slowed down the advance. In April, ITB cleanly broke through resistance only to come to … Read more

T2108 Update (August 7, 2015) – S&P 500 Support Keeps Taking A Beating; Homebuilders In Focus

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

KB Home Continues to Struggle With Former Downtrend From Peak of Housing Bubble

I have written positively several times about Kb Home (KBH) this year (for example, see “KB Home ‘On Offense’ As Its Housing Markets And Pricing Power Strengthen“). KBH is up nicely for the year through a lot of turbulent price action, but it has yet to shake its former downtrend drawn from the peak of … Read more