Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more

High Valuation Hinders W.W. Grainger’s After Historic Post-Earnings Response

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two months ago, I wrote about Fastenal (FAST), an industrial and construction supplier, describing the stock as expensive but worth buying at lower prices. Within a month, FAST jumped over … Read more

Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 5, 2012, Fastenal (FAST) dropped 9.8% in response to its May sales report. This sharply negative reaction got my attention because Fastenal’s industrial and construction supplies business should be … Read more

Companies Looking for Stabilization In Non-Residential Real Estate Beyond Today’s Continued Poor Performance

I continue to keep tabs on the performance of non-residential (commercial) real estate through the eyes of the companies that service this industry. Unlike previous quarters, earnings reports are a bit more mixed about the condition and outlook for non-residential real estate. Current conditions remain poor, but companies are now straining to see some light … Read more

Earnings Excitement Lifts the Market but Not the Reporting Companies

Excitement over earnings almost trumped technicals today. The S&P 500 tipped over and then faded back ever so slightly from its 50-day moving average (DMA). Earnings news typically trumps technicals, but I was pretty convinced looming overhead resistance would hold firm no matter then news given the weak buying volume coming into today. Buying volume … Read more

Fastenal Bounces Neatly Off Technical Support

After summarizing Fastenal’s dour commentary on non-residential construction, I pointed out that a retest of former resistance would make an attractive entry point on the stock. As planned, I initiated a (swing) trade on Fastenal (FAST) as it probed the 50DMA support over the past several days. Today, FAST bounced off the 50-day moving average … Read more

Fastenal Still Reporting Weakness in Non-Residential Construction

Looking for signs of life in the commercial real-estate (CRE) business has now become an earnings season ritual for me. If construction activity serves as a leading indicator of CRE’s future health, then Fastenal’s report on fourth quarter and annual earnings demonstrates once again that CRE continues to deteriorate, not improve. Fastenal (FAST) reported “…continued … Read more

Fastenal Confirms Continuing Weakness in Non-Residential Construction

Fastenal (FAST) is a $5.8B market cap industrial company that supplies components and parts for construction and manufacturing. FAST reported earnings yesterday that again confirmed a recurring theme of weakness in non-residential construction. This area has often been called “the next shoe to drop” that will presage further weakness in the economy. This drop has … Read more