Above the 40 (September 14, 2018) – Stock Market’s Unenthusiastic Rebound from Stretched Conditions

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I flipped cautiously bullish last week. As I suspected, the prospects for a bounce were not as good as the previous … Read more

Above the 40 (July 27, 2018) – Stock Market Weaknesses Confirm Earlier Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 49.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to gain on the week, but it was not easy. Each day of the week delivered new … Read more

Trading An Iron Ore Top: Prices Stall Amid Record Chinese Imports and Inventories

Iron ore may have reached a new inflection point with a price rally coming to a halt in January and some related stocks consolidating near multi-year highs. When I last made an iron ore trade in September, 2017, I was responding to a surprise projection from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that suggested a … Read more

Above the 40 (May 5, 2017) – The S&P 500 Again Skirts Past A Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 54.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Two hallmarks of this current stock market have been the 1) consistent weakness of sellers and 2) the persistent ability … Read more

Iron Ore Reverses A Major Breakout While Bulls Stick By the Australian Dollar

The list of asset prices that have completely reversed their post-election gains continues to expand. Last week, iron ore officially joined that list…and the sell-off continues apace. On Tuesday night, April 18th, Business Insider reported: “According to Metal Bulletin, the spot price for benchmark 62% fines fell 4.6% to $63.20 a dry tonne, extending its … Read more

Above the 40 (March 27, 2017) – Sellers Fold, Buyers Chase SNAP Underwriters

AT40 = 36.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Imagine that, the S&P 500 (SPY) found buyers to defend support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). The NASDAQ (QQQ) … Read more

Above the 40 (February 9, 2017) – The S&P 500 Celebrates “Phenomenal” Tax News

AT40 Status: 58.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 68.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 10.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary “We’re way ahead of schedule, I believe. And we’ll be announcing something, I believe, in the next two or three … Read more

Above the Forty (AT40 – February 3, 2017): The S&P 500 Bids to End Bearish Divergence

AT40 Status: 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 68.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 11.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Nothing says “strong sentiment” like a stock market that actually rallies on a strong U.S. jobs report: the fear of … Read more

T2108 Update (September 13, 2016) – Sellers Make the Case for Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (August 19, 2016) – A Stubborn Market Disparity and Potential Big Catches for Bottom-Fishers

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more