ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Market Breadth Summary Stock Market Commentary Last week was bullish, and yet the bearish signal that bothered me early in the year returned. Market breadth flashed bearish even as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ broke out to all-time highs. This bearish divergence is exactly the setup I did not want to see. The … Read more
Earlier this month I launched PAIROS, the Panic AI Research On Software, to provide a structured approaching for assessing the (contrarian) investment thesis in software companies heavily impacted by the SaaSpocalypse. I ran a real-time test of PAIROS on Anthropic’s Mythos and developed a rationale for buying into Palo Alto Networks (PANW). So far, so … Read more
Anthropic’s Project Glasswing sent shudders through the world of cybersecurity as the launch of Mythos exposed catastrophic security flaws throughout the software ecosystem. The threat is so dire that the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chair hastily convened banking leaders to make sure they are ready to secure the nation’s finances against these … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Stock Market Commentary A week ago, I made the case that a bottom was finally forming after five weeks of selling. The ceasefire announcement that was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz let buyers run free and confirm that bottom. Wednesday’s resulting gap up created post-oversold trading conditions that tell … Read more
Introduction I have been working on a framework to make sense of AI’s impact on the enterprise software industry. The ongoing SaaSpocalypse caused by an AI Panic has given this research extra urgency because I suspect the sell-off has created contrarian opportunities to buy impacted stocks for significant upside gains in coming years. I created … Read more