ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The protracted shutdown of the U.S. Federal government has dragged past three weeks and Federal workers have now missed their first paychecks of this battle. The stock market rallied to an all-time high when the shutdown started, and it certainly seems to care even less after recovering from a 1-day mini panic … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week’s trading had something for almost everyone: volatility, churn, recovery, and a bank scare. A familiar story about renewed U.S.–China trade tensions expanded into a larger mosaic of market stress and resilience. Still, given market breadth remains broken, I see a market skating on the edge. The volatility index (VIX) summarizes … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market leaned into a melt-up as a constant stream of IPOs signaled risk-on appetite even as a massive downward revisions in jobs in the 12 months through March, 2025 implied more than expected economic weakness ahead. Rate cuts beckon as a result of this broadening weakness, and Wall Street has … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The month of August featured three distinctly strong expansions of market breadth. The last expansion featured the largest single-day expansion I have ever seen. In between these episodes, the market showed signs of exhaustion. The latest exhaustion is centered on the AI trade. NVDA earnings slightly disappointed and included slowing revenue growth … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week delivered one of the most bullish one-day expansions of market breadth I have ever seen. On Friday, August 22nd, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole confab and gave financial markets sufficiently dovish signals to reignite a rally that had waned most of the week. Big cap … Read more