ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 3.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (13th oversold day)AT200 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 57.8 (down 23.4%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced another historic day as the bear market takes on more twists and turns. The … Read more
The race to zero interest rate policies (ZIRPs) is reaching a climax. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia On March 3, 2020, The Reserve Bank of Australia dropped its key interest rate 25 basis points (bps) from 0.75% to 0.5%, an all-time low for Australia. In doing so the RBA proclaimed the following in its statement: … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The short-term outlook for the housing market is clouded by the current global turmoil generated by the coronavirus. The housing data discussed below were all collected before the virus came to the forefront of the minds of Americans. While demand for housing in the U.S. should remain strong (and certainly times like … Read more
AT40 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.1Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on a rare performance: the S&P 500 fell for two days in a row. Buyers tapped the brakes on … Read more
AT40 = 63.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market started the new decade with wild swings. After starting the first trading day of the decade with a 0.8% gain … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary When I wrote the Housing Market Review for November, the stocks of home builders were on the edge of conquering their moment of truth. The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) soon rolled over and confirmed a breakdown below support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). ITB is now in a precarious position where … Read more
My now wavering bullish case for the Canadian dollar (FXC) took a major hit with the November, 2019 Labour Force Survey. Statistics Canada reported worsening unemployment rates both sequentially and year-over-year. November’s 5.9% unemployment rate was an increase from October’s 5.5% and the 5.6% in November, 2018. The chart below suggests an end to the … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The stocks of home builders are starting to fail their moment of truth. A Moment of Truth Looming Ever Larger On October 25th, the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit a 21-month high that coincided exactly with a major multi-year peak and post-recession high from January, 2018. The sellers showed … Read more
The Bank of Canada changed its tune from the its last pronouncement on monetary policy. At that time, the Bank was very confident about the Canadian economy even as it mapped out the downside risks of the U.S. vs China Trade War. The Trade War remains unresolved three months later, and the Bank of Canada … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I finally conceded to a sustained rally in the stocks of home builders. I noted how this stubborn rally moved counter to unimpressive data. In September, several data points finally came together to support the strong sentiment in financial markets. Low interest rates dominate the story … Read more