Why Oversold Matters: The Jobs Dip and Rip – The Market Breadth

dip and rip (Credit: Google Workspace Labs, AI-generated)

Stock Market Commentary The economist “consensus” expectations for September job growth missed the mark by a mile, 336,000 actual versus 170,000 projected. These big misses represent the on-going struggles of conventional economics to understand the dynamics of today’s post-pandemic economy. Initially, the good jobs news frightened financial markets which think of good news as bad … Read more

Apple Drags A Mixed-Up Market Higher – The Market Breadth

apple drags (Credit: astronomy_blog on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: In the previous week, the stock market put on a display of strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s May decision on monetary policy. That bravado was temporarily undermined by the final blow to First Republic Bank (FRC). After a one-day pause, presumably to contemplate the implications of the lack of a coherent … Read more

Yet Another Jobs Report Takes the Shine Off A Post-Fed High – The Market Breadth

shine off (Credit: christophercjensen on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: On cue, the stock market groaned at fresh signs of economic strength, this time from another strong jobs report. The recession Wall Street wants is on hold yet again. The bullish intent that charged out of the wake of the Federal Reserve’s last statement on monetary policy made a sharp u-turn. The … Read more

Soft Economic News Sparks Late New Year’s Cheer – The Market Breadth

new years cheer (Credit: Happy New Year! Cheers! by włodi from Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: It took a mixed jobs report and soft economic data to spark late New Year’s cheer in the stock market. The December jobs report refreshed the message of a strong labor market whose unemployment rate has stayed between 3.5% and 3.7% the entire time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates. Yet, … Read more

Good Economic News Sends Stocks Into Rapid Retreat – The Market Breadth

rapid retreat (Credit: I'm still running away by Vincepal on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: I expressed my surprise after the stock market soared in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s inflation-fighting speech. I thought Powell simply reiterated known information with more reminders of the Fed’s inflation-fighting commitment. Since then, two strong economic reports in a row have sent the stock market into rapid retreat from that … Read more

The Fed-Related Chart That Most Concerns the Stock Market

An on-going debate rages about whether or how fast the Fed should hike rates in 2019. Some even question the need for a rate hike in December. Indeed, the market has priced in a “only” a 65% chance of a rate hike next month. I say only because before the October sell-off and November’s weakness, … Read more

Above the 40 (February 2, 2018) – Janet Yellen Exits As Oversold Market Conditions Loom

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.3 (28.5% increase!) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary “We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank and the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust … Read more

Jobs and Oil Spell Relief for the Canadian Dollar After Speculators Ramp Bearish Bets

Canada and the U.S. reported jobs numbers for April at the same time last Friday (8:30am Eastern). From the surface, it looks like traders thought MUCH more highly of the Canadian report. The U.S. dollar plunged against the Canadian dollar (FXC) and erased the entire week’s gain for USD/CAD. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Interestingly, traders took a … Read more

Above the 40 (March 10, 2017) – A Stock Market Redressing Itself for A Meeting with the Fed

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The February U.S. jobs report catalyzed the next swing in the stock market’s bear-bull knife fight. I noted in my … Read more

Why American Manufacturing Jobs Will Prove VERY Hard to Win Back

President-elect Donald Trump made a strong promise to bring back jobs to the U.S. from overseas. Manufacturing employment was a particular showcase in this campaign pledge. There are a lot of reasons to believe that a to return jobs to the U.S. will be extremely hard to accomplish. I am particularly struck by the data … Read more