ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary After a holiday-shortened week, a market breadth breakout signals sentiment near peak bullishness. The market also seemed to interpret an unexpectedly strong jobs report as a positive, even as odds for rate cuts plunged (at the time of writing, 5% for later this month and 69.4% for September, down from 91% a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced a hiccup in an otherwise strong post-oversold bounce. The Q1 GDP report revealed a small contraction that surprisingly caught the market off guard. However, this contraction was driven primarily by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. I assume a lot of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Big news: the oversold period is officially OVER. This tariff tainted oversold period was lasted a historical 12 trading days. Several catalysts emerged during and after market hours to support a narrative of a sustained bottom, including: While the length of the oversold period confirms bear market trading, these developments suggest the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The tariff rumors proved true after all. The green shoots of Monday that grew alongside the rumor of a pause presaged Wednesday’s massive relief from a real blink on tariffs. Those historic gains were large enough to generate a strong week broadly across the stock market. Still, as more blinking and backing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The trading week started with a powerful jolt to the market. The major catalyst was a rumor that President Trump was considering a 90-day delay on tariffs, triggering a nearly 30-minute, $2.5 trillion rally. While ultimately unfounded, the rumor represented the kind of response markets expect: when financial markets panic, policy-makers panic. … Read more