ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Finally the bears break in on all the fun the bulls have had for months. The stock market got overwhelmed with a flood of bad news that was just too difficult to ignore or look through (for now). The July jobs report was not just weak but also it included a massive … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After a holiday-shortened week, a market breadth breakout signals sentiment near peak bullishness. The market also seemed to interpret an unexpectedly strong jobs report as a positive, even as odds for rate cuts plunged (at the time of writing, 5% for later this month and 69.4% for September, down from 91% a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced a hiccup in an otherwise strong post-oversold bounce. The Q1 GDP report revealed a small contraction that surprisingly caught the market off guard. However, this contraction was driven primarily by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. I assume a lot of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Big news: the oversold period is officially OVER. This tariff tainted oversold period was lasted a historical 12 trading days. Several catalysts emerged during and after market hours to support a narrative of a sustained bottom, including: While the length of the oversold period confirms bear market trading, these developments suggest the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The tariff rumors proved true after all. The green shoots of Monday that grew alongside the rumor of a pause presaged Wednesday’s massive relief from a real blink on tariffs. Those historic gains were large enough to generate a strong week broadly across the stock market. Still, as more blinking and backing … Read more