Above the 40 (June 1, 2018) – Uncomfortable Divergences Weigh On the Stock Market’s Manic Rally

AT40 = 62.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a near 4-month high) VIX = 13.5 (down 12.8%) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary A day like this past Friday makes me want to be bullish about the entire stock … Read more

Above the 40 (May 18, 2018) – Stock Market Drift Stalls Bearish Signal

AT40 = 64.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Looks like there was a good reason to wait on flipping my short-term trading call back to (cautiously) bearish. After pointing out … Read more

Above the 40 (May 9, 2018) – More Sentiment Changes with Fresh Breakouts for the Stock Market

AT40 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The “Apple Temptation” of the stock market seems to be working. For starters, after a 3 week run with a cautiously bearish … Read more

Above the 40 (May 4, 2018) – The Apple Temptation of the Stock Market

AT40 = 53.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.8 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary I was right to be bearish last week…until the very last day when all at once the market reversed almost all … Read more

Above the 40 (April 27, 2018) – The Market’s Stop Signs Fail to Yield to A Busy Earnings Week

AT40 = 54.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary Source: My Daughter A week ago, I finally changed my short-term trading call: I went from neutral to cautiously bearish. When … Read more

Above the 40 (April 13, 2018) – The Bears Engulf An Otherwise Uplifting Week for the Stock Market

AT40 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.0% for the week. Yet the week felt like a loser given the way it ended. The … Read more

Above the 40 (March 23, 2018) – A Stock Market From Another Planet: Yet Another Oversold Test Looms

AT40 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-year closing low) VIX = 24.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary On Friday, President Trump characterized the pre-Trump stock market as something “from another planet.” Surely he meant the last … Read more

Above the 40 (March 2, 2018) – Trump Pulls the Trade War Tripwire

AT40 = 27.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary President Trump has been talking about taking unilateral trade actions since he was campaigning in 2016. The rhetoric heated up … Read more

Above the 40 (February 28) – An S&P 500 Breakdown Helps Drag Market to Edge of Oversold

AT40 = 25.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.9% Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary As I feared was likely, the S&P 500 (SPY) wasted no time in breaking its 50-day moving average (DMA) support. … Read more

Above the 40 (February 14, 2018) – A Bullish Tech Breakout Underlines the End of Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 27.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 (drop of 22.9%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish PROLOGUE Valentine’s Day, February 14th, was a great day in the stock market and a fantastic validation of my strategizing … Read more