ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is putting the Google Trends indicator to the test. The price of Bitcoin is surging at the same time this key indicator of sentiment is also surging (on a relative basis). Per the Google Trends hypothesis I have demonstrated over time, this surge in excitement is signaling an imminent reversal in the parabolic … Read more
AT40 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 49.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s coordinated yet precarious dance around 50-day moving averages (DMAs) continued on Friday. The latest round of technical battles played out … Read more
AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more
Chaos After the divided politicians of the United Kingdom managed to postpone Brexit to October 31, 2019 from March 29, 2019, I assumed the British pound (FXB) would take a break from wild and sudden gyrations. I was wrong. On Thursday, local elections plunged the Conservative party (the Tories) into a resounding defeat that most … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (change from bearish) Stock Market Commentary It was one of those amazing endings. First round of the NBA playoffs. The Portland Trailblazers up 3 games to … Read more
When I used Google search trends to confirm a buyable breakout and sustainable bottom in Bitcoin (BTC/USD), I created the following hypothesis: “a spike in search interest confirms a strong change in price behavior.” With Bitcoin breaking out again, the hypothesis now looks solid. The chart below shows Bitcoin jumping to a 5-month high that … Read more
AT40 = 58.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the previous week looking ready to lunge for its all-time high. Surprisingly, buyers decided to take a rest, … Read more
AT40 = 65.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.0Short-term Trading Call: bearish (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary A security guard slipped and clipped the heels of Tiger Woods at the Masters this weekend. The tripping of Woods was … Read more
AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.3Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Ever since the last overbought period ended, the stock market has experienced just two clear bearish signals. Each time, the bearishness was well-telegraphed … Read more
AT40 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 38.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.5 (20.9% gain)Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. The week previous to the last, … Read more