ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary We made it through another week without any major negative headlines impacting the stock market. Although late-breaking news took futures down due to Moody’s dropping the U.S. from its top credit rating, marking the loss of the last top-tier assessment of U.S. government debt, I expect the market impact to be minimal. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market resolved one cliffhanger, a hovering just below resistance at 200-day moving averages (DMAs) on the major indices, and moved on to another. A large surge in reaction to a pause in China vs U.S. trade hostilities sent the major indices gapping right over resistance and directly into the overbought … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The market ended the week on a quiet cliffhanger as major indices hovered under critical resistance levels. A defining theme was the muted reaction to major headlines, particularly around trade and stagflation risks. Despite the looming shadow of stagflation – a term not explicitly mentioned but clearly implied in last week’s Fed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market is right back to levels seen right before the entire tariff trauma and drama unfolded, but does this reversal mean all is well? Confirmation awaits the next breakouts. The April jobs report appeared to provide additional relief to the stock market. The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs and the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced a hiccup in an otherwise strong post-oversold bounce. The Q1 GDP report revealed a small contraction that surprisingly caught the market off guard. However, this contraction was driven primarily by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. I assume a lot of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week marked an important shift as the stock market experienced overdue relief. Most notably, there were no major headlines causing significant disruptions in financial markets. Instead, the market continued the theme of recovery from the previous week, driven by policymakers pivoting their messaging about the economic chaos triggered by policies and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Big news: the oversold period is officially OVER. This tariff tainted oversold period was lasted a historical 12 trading days. Several catalysts emerged during and after market hours to support a narrative of a sustained bottom, including: While the length of the oversold period confirms bear market trading, these developments suggest the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary We finally got a breather: a calm weekday and a holiday for both the US stock and bond markets. The break felt more relieving than even the tariff pause, a sign of just how tense things have been in the markets. Market breadth was my major headline as twice in the week, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The tariff rumors proved true after all. The green shoots of Monday that grew alongside the rumor of a pause presaged Wednesday’s massive relief from a real blink on tariffs. Those historic gains were large enough to generate a strong week broadly across the stock market. Still, as more blinking and backing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The trading week started with a powerful jolt to the market. The major catalyst was a rumor that President Trump was considering a 90-day delay on tariffs, triggering a nearly 30-minute, $2.5 trillion rally. While ultimately unfounded, the rumor represented the kind of response markets expect: when financial markets panic, policy-makers panic. … Read more