ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week was a bullish week for the stock market. Key breakouts on the major indices made a bullish case for stocks as buying strength conjured up overbought trading conditions. Yet another post-CPI celebration sealed the deal on a bullish convergence leading into the report on inflation. While it is tempting to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: It took a mixed jobs report and soft economic data to spark late New Year’s cheer in the stock market. The December jobs report refreshed the message of a strong labor market whose unemployment rate has stayed between 3.5% and 3.7% the entire time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates. Yet, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Revisions to the report on GDP (gross domestic product) typically do not generate reactions in the financial markets, especially the third revision. So I completely look past the third revision to Q3 GDP when I concluded the path of least resistance offered a reprieve. The revision revealed economic conditions were even better … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A week ago, I cautioned that “the tenuous positioning is further weakened by a breakout of volatility and significant deterioration in the market breadth indicators.” The November CPI report showed the slightest surprise possible and faked out the stock market on the way to another hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The people of China have now suffered three years of various draconian lockdowns meant to contain the spread of COVID-19. The latest lockdowns remind a suffering populace that there remains no end in sight for this extended kind of public health authoritarianism. Apparently, the frustrations are boiling over enough to motivate people … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: I continue to underestimate just how much these bear market rallies price in misplaced optimism over monetary policy from the Fed. Although Chair Jerome Powell remained overall consistent with the Fed’s hawkish, inflation-fighting message, the stock market plunged after an initial post-release surge. Accordingly, the latest bear market breakthrough came to an … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The Q3 2022 U.S. GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis undermined this year’s strident claims that the economy overall is already in recession. Q3 GDP grew 2.6% largely thanks to a 2.8% growth in personal expenditures for services (one more validation of the relatively strong jobs market) and thanks to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Fears of a recession are running high as the Federal Reserve scrambles to normalize monetary policy. The Fed is racing against an economic clock. It needs to get rates as close to the “neutral rate” as possible before a weakening economy finally forces them to reverse course. The higher the rates when … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more