Home Builder Breakouts: KB Home and Catch-Up Time for Lennar

The grind played out for about 5 months – including a sell-off in June ahead of earnings. Now, KB Home (KBH) finally managed to break out to a new high for the year. KB Home (KBH) finally joined the growing list of home builders breaking to prices last seen last year and earlier. KBH is … Read more

Home Builder Trade: A Timely Exit or An Opportunity for A Refresh?

With just one day to go until expiration of the short side, my Aug/Oct $39 calendar call spread on the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its initial profit target. I was hoping the short side would expire worthless, and I could ride the long side expiring in October into the launch … Read more

Real Estate Pairs Trade Refresh: Long Redfin, Short Zillow Group

The ratio of Redfin (RDFN) vs Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) is bouncing off its well-supported historic lows.

My last pairs trade going long Redfin (RDFN) calls versus long Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) put options did not work out as I over-extended my stay on RDFN. A fresh opportunity for a pairs trade has arrived with RDFN neatly testing key support after reversing most of its post-earnings gains and with Zillow Group in … Read more

M/I Homes Earnings Q2 2019: Strong Growth In Affordable Housing Markets

M/I Homes (MHO) trades at a 19-month high thanks to a major post-earnings breakout.

Overall Assessment I am cautiously bullish on M/I Homes (MHO) which means I want to buy the stock on dips. The company’s Q2 2019 earnings report demonstrated strong growth amid record financial performance. The homebuilder is benefiting from the increasing popularity of lower-priced homes as first-time home buyers look for affordable housing amid a scramble … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more