Rate Cut Promises Rescued A Stock Market Near Oversold – Above the 40 (June 7, 2019)

AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary From opening at the edge of oversold trading conditions to closing on near panic buying, last week was a wild week! … Read more

Housing Market Review (May, 2019) – A (Seasonal) Top Unfolds Amid Rising Confidence and Mixed Demand

Housing Market Intro/Summary In several posts on the housing market, I made the case for a top in the stocks of home builders and pointed out the parallel weaknesses in the housing data. Last week, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) appeared to confirm what looks like a triple top in the index. Not … Read more

A Stock Market Floating Precariously – Above the 40 (May 24, 2019)

AT40 = 34.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Bearish resistance won the trading battle the previous week. Last week, sellers did their best to follow-through. It was a week of chop … Read more

Above the 40 (May 3, 2019) – A Faithful Stock Market Push Through Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more

Housing Market Review (April, 2019) – Housing Sentiment Leans Against Seasonality and Fresh Declines In Key Data

Housing Market Intro/Summary In the March Housing Market Review, I described how the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was breaking out despite an unimpressive collection of housing data (in the aggregate and trendwise). Last month, I updated my analysis of the seasonal trading strategy for home builders and pointed out the historical tendency for … Read more