Stock Market Slams Into October’s Average Drawdown In Two Days Flat – Above the 40 (October 2, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) confirmed its 50DMA breakdown with a 1.8% loss, but also closed well below its lower Bollinger Band.

AT40 = 39.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low at 34.5%)AT200 = 45.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 20.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Exit The selling today was so broad that even Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility … Read more

New Pressures for the Stock Market Despite Fade in Concerning Signals – Above the 40 (September 27, 2019)

AT40 = 61.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 17.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Conditionally Bearish Breakdown Friday’s trading action triggered my prime condition for flipping bearish. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

Surging Oil Helps Nudge the Stock Market Into Overbought Conditions – Above the 40 (September 16, 2019)

The United States Oil Fund (USO) soared to a near 4-month high in the wake of a drone strike on Saudi oil facilities.

AT40 = 70.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #1 overbought)AT200 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month high)VIX = 14.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Oil Soars When I wrote my last Above the 40 post, I knew about the drone strike on … Read more

Stock Market Indices Break South On Expanded Border Tensions – Above the 40 (May 31, 2019)

AT40 = 23.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a low of 20.7%)AT200 = 36.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 month low)VIX = 18.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary So much for the potential for follow-through on bullish divergence! Perhaps the failure is … Read more

Above the 40 (May 3, 2019) – A Faithful Stock Market Push Through Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more

Above the 40 (November 23, 2018) – Stock Market Barely Avoids Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 27.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week on November 20th, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving … Read more

Above the 40 (November 7, 2018) – Exclamation Points for the End of Oversold Trading Conditions

AT40 = 40.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.4 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Financial markets made their votes very clear after the U.S. 2018 midterm election. via GIPHY Apparently, today’s rally in the S&P 500 … Read more

Above the 40 (May 25, 2018) – A Loitering Stock Market

AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The churn continues on the S&P 500 (SPY) while AT40 (T2108) loiters around just under its overbought threshold of 70%. The lethargic … Read more

Above the 40 (April 13, 2018) – The Bears Engulf An Otherwise Uplifting Week for the Stock Market

AT40 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.0% for the week. Yet the week felt like a loser given the way it ended. The … Read more

Above the 40 (November 15, 2017) – A Stock Market That Wants to Drop

AT40 = 41.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.1 (as high as 14.5) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The narrowing rally in the stock market has officially resolved into a sell-off. The downward slide is … Read more