Above the 40 (December 3, 2019) – A Quick U-Turn for Speculation in the Stock Market

AT40 = 48.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 50.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0 (up 7.0% and went as high as 18.0)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary It was fun for the short time it lasted. The speculative turn in the stock … Read more

A Stock Market Content to Drift Higher No Matter What – Above the 40 (November 22, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back slightly last week as the stock market’s underlying bearish divergence finally proved too heavy. Yet, the pullback … Read more

A Quick Roundtrip for Apple Post-Earnings: Reviewing Trade Strategy

The bullish post-earnings scenario I painted for Apple (AAPL) worked out relatively well in the first day of trading. After AAPL quickly topped out, my proposed strategy for a calendar call spread rapidly transformed from under-performing the benchmark weekly $210 call strategy to outperforming. In the immediate wake of earnings, AAPL gapped over expected $215 … Read more

Above the 40 (May 3, 2019) – A Faithful Stock Market Push Through Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 63.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is keeping the faith. The previous week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represented well the … Read more

Above the 40 (October 18, 2018) – A Second Oversold Period Gives 200DMAs A Fresh Challenge

AT40 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 2nd day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 33.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (up 6 percentage points) VIX = 20.1 (15% increase) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The 200-day moving averages (DMAs) still … Read more

Above the 40 (July 18, 2018) – The S&P 500 Stubbornly Pushes Higher While A Bearish Divergence Lingers On

AT40 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I expressed my lingering suspicion of the market’s rally and drive right past a bearish … Read more

Periods of Extremely Low Volatility Remain Bullish – Now With Fresh Footnotes

The volatility index, the VIX, closed below 11 on April 24, 2017. That launched 184 trading days of extremely low volatility (ELV). The VIX is now just 1 more trading day away from finally bringing this historic event to an end. By my definition, it takes 20 trading days of the VIX closing above 11 … Read more

The Surprising Implications of Periods of Extremely Low Volatility – A Year of Records

Trying to chase volatility higher has been like chasing fancy footwork. The S&P 500 (SPY) last completed a drawdown of 5% or more on November 4, 2016. That ended a period of pre-election weakness that began in early to mid-August, 2016. The last drawdown of 5% or more before that occurred around Brexit when the … Read more

As the VIX Plunges to All-Time Lows, Speculators Abort Their Seasonal Gold and Silver Rush

A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more

Above the 40 (September 26, 2017) – Stocks Knock On Overbought’s Door

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 69.4%) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I noted how the stock market bent but stubbornly refused to … Read more