ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in December for November, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) had cracked through support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) as part of a post Fed rate hike pullback. That close turned out to be the last bottom for ITB, and it set … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in November for October, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was experiencing its first post-election pullback. I stayed focused on the strong housing data and treated the episode as a buying opportunity. Over a month later, the market is still ignoring the strong … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September for August, 2016. At that time, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the tail-end of an extended sell-off. I noted the irony of the acceleration of selling in the wake of a new home sales number that was the second-highest of this post-recession period. … Read more
Three months ago, I reviewed earnings guidance from Meritage Homes (MTH) for second quarter 2016. The guidance and subsequent positive market reaction came within weeks of a first quarter earnings report that was very poorly received (13% loss on the day). I called the guidance “too late” because of the sour taste left by the … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in June, 2016 for May. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) had just reversed all its post-Brexit losses along with a sharp rebound in global financial markets. I expressed concern that ITB finally reached a top for the current cycle. The ETF instead … Read more
At the 9th Annual J.P. Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on May 17, 2016, Meritage Homes (MTH) released good news on guidance for the second quarter and fiscal year 2016 (link updated 8/23). MTH expects notable year-over-year gains for FY2016 across all its top metrics except home closing gross margins: Home orders: +4-6% Home … Read more
When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more
When Meritage Homes (MTH) lowered guidance on September 9, 2015, the nation’s seventh largest homebuilder blamed several factors: A delay in closing homes. This was the most concerning explanation because the company provided no further details on it. Increased labor costs. These costs impacted margins. The problem was particularly acute in MTH’s major markets of … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 10, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) After writing about the bullish earnings report from D.R. Horton (DHI), I have looked for further confirmation from other major public homebuilders. Meritage Homes (MTH) remains on my list of favorites … Read more