Above the 40 (December 24, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: An Epic Reversal, Historic Depths, and an End to Hubris

AT40 = 3.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #7, 10-year low!)AT200 = 8.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (9 1/2- year low!)VIX = 36.1 (1-day gain of 20.0%, 10 1/2- month high)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (oh so many caveats below!) Commentary Although it’s been … Read more

Above the 40 (December 14, 2018) – A Bear-Burdened Stock Market Dropped to Oversold and Passed A Trade-Positive Tweet

AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day oversold)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (34-month low)VIX = 21.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe stock market is oversold again as a bearish divergence to start the week came to its “logical conclusion.” AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Above the 40 (December 7, 2018) – Right Back Where the Stock Market Started, But Worse

AT40 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just off a 32-month low)VIX = 23.2 (as high as 24.7)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryI am surprised the stock market has yet to close in oversold conditions. AT40 (T2108), the … Read more

Above the 40 (November 30, 2018) – Market Sentiment Quickly Transforms: Enter the “Cramer Bottom”

AT40 = 44.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 18.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week was a week where the stock market seemed to force its way into the endzone … Read more

Above the 40 (May 30, 2018) – A Manic Stock Market Instantly Forgets Its Italian Angst

AT40 = 66.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a near 4-month high) VIX = 14.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Oh the hazards of changing short-term trading calls in this churning market! Reluctantly, I switched my short-term trading … Read more

Chart Review: Stock Market Fades Weigh Heavily On ACIA, MTCH, UPS

The S&P 500 (SPY) opened the trading day strong but spent the rest of the day fading to a much smaller gain. (The percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), T2108 (AT40), ended the day with an ominous loss that leaves it hanging below the 70% overbought threshold). This near day-long … Read more

A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End

One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic. On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald … Read more

Above the 40 (June 21, 2017) – The NASDAQ Snatches the Baton From the S&P 500

AT40 = 47.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Like two ships passing in the night, the NASDAQ, including the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ), took back its advantage … Read more

Above the 40 (June 16, 2017) – A Post-Fed Market Still In Bullish Position

AT40 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.4 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The Federal Reserve gave the permission to the stock market that I awaited…well, sort of. On Wednesday, June 14, … Read more

Above the 40 (June 8, 2017) – The Market’s Bullish Push Through Thursday’s Trifecta

AT40 = 52.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary One out of three. The last event of Thursday’s Trifecta had the only notable impact on financial markets. With … Read more