Overbought Trading Conditions, Yet Still Bullish – The Market Breadth

Overbought Trading Conditions, Yet Still Bullish

Stock Market Commentary We made it through another week without any major negative headlines impacting the stock market. Although late-breaking news took futures down due to Moody’s dropping the U.S. from its top credit rating, marking the loss of the last top-tier assessment of U.S. government debt, I expect the market impact to be minimal. … Read more

A Cliffhanger Under (200DMA) Resistance – The Market Breadth

A Cliffhanger Under (200DMA) Resistance - The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary The market ended the week on a quiet cliffhanger as major indices hovered under critical resistance levels. A defining theme was the muted reaction to major headlines, particularly around trade and stagflation risks. Despite the looming shadow of stagflation – a term not explicitly mentioned but clearly implied in last week’s Fed … Read more

Right Back to Where the Tariff Drama Began – So All Is Well? – The Market Breadth

Right Back to Where the Tariff Drama Began - So All Is Well

Stock Market Commentary The stock market is right back to levels seen right before the entire tariff trauma and drama unfolded, but does this reversal mean all is well? Confirmation awaits the next breakouts. The April jobs report appeared to provide additional relief to the stock market. The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs and the … Read more

A Hiccup in the Oversold Bounce from Weak GDP – The Market Breadth

A Hiccup In the Oversold Bounce from Weak GDP - The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced a hiccup in an otherwise strong post-oversold bounce. The Q1 GDP report revealed a small contraction that surprisingly caught the market off guard. However, this contraction was driven primarily by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. I assume a lot of … Read more

Overdue Relief Comes to the Stock Market – The Market Breadth

Overdue Relief Comes to the Stock Market

Stock Market Commentary Last week marked an important shift as the stock market experienced overdue relief. Most notably, there were no major headlines causing significant disruptions in financial markets. Instead, the market continued the theme of recovery from the previous week, driven by policymakers pivoting their messaging about the economic chaos triggered by policies and … Read more

Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period! – The Market Breadth

Oh So Close to An End to This Oversold Trading Period

Stock Market Commentary We finally got a breather: a calm weekday and a holiday for both the US stock and bond markets. The break felt more relieving than even the tariff pause, a sign of just how tense things have been in the markets. Market breadth was my major headline as twice in the week, … Read more

A Tariff Blink, An Oversold Market Rejoices – The Market Breadth

A Blink on Tariffs, An Oversold Market Rejoices

Stock Market Commentary There are not enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe what happened today. We have borne witness to a multi-day, multi-week saga of economic warfare, tariff chaos, a rolling stock market crash – and now, an historic oversold bounce. President Trump has gone from tariffs, to tariff flexibility, to tariff reciprocity to … Read more

A Bear Market Ends – The Market Breadth

The bear market ends for the S&P 500 (SPY) as it gapped higher and cleared major resistance from an area of agitation, closing just below key Election Day resistance.

Stock Market Commentary And so a bear market ends, for the S&P 500 at least. The stock market enjoyed a strong follow-through day supported by previous oversold conditions. To represent the most recent technical developments, I created a well-defined area for the bear market called the “area of agitation”. The S&P 500’s breakout above this … Read more

Powell Breathed More Life Into Market Breadth

Powell Breathes More Life Into Market Breadth (Source - Federal Reserve, March 19, 2025)

Stock Market Commentary The case for a sustainable low—but not necessarily a bottom—continues to develop. Today’s catalyst came from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who breathed more life into market breadth. Market breadth continued its steady expansion. Over the past three of four trading days, there has been clear expansion in breadth, now reaching a … Read more

Cool Follow-Through for the Bear Market Relief – The Market Breadth

cool follow-through for bear market relief

Stock Market Commentary The stock market saw a cool and strong follow-through day, reinforcing the potential for a sustainable low (NOT a bottom). Based on changes in market breadth, I discussed the potential for a sustainable low in “FINALLY, Some Convincing Bear Market Relief – The Market Breadth“. A flip in the short-term trends for … Read more