Disney’s Bearish Breakdown: A Case Study of Risk Management for Long-Term Investors

The stock of Disney (DIS) has suffered a massive and very bearish breakdown this month. At the time of writing, the stock has lost 19% since closing at its last all-time high. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Disney’s first breakdown came earlier this month. The stock lost 9.2% and closed below its 50-day moving average (DMA) on extremely … Read more

T2108 Update (August 21, 2015) – Stocks Rain Down Into Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (August 20, 2015) – A Broad and Bearish Breakdown for the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (July 28, 2015) – An Important Stock Market Turnaround

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Even Cocoa Starts to Waver In the Face of the Collapse In Commodities

A month ago, I wrote about the resilience of cocoa prices in the face of an avalanche of weaker agricultural prices. Given my opportunistic strategy for trading cocoa through the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), I laid out a price target for locking in profits on the latest trade. I have since sold my … Read more

T2108 Update (July 21, 2015) – Follow-Through on Bearish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The U.S. Dollar and the British Pound Tag Important 2015 Milestones

On Friday, July 17, 2015, the U.S. dollar index (UUP) closed just below the short-term downtrend in place since it made a multi-year high in March. And for those who fear a strong dollar is bad for the U.S. economy, or at least the stock market, the S&P 500 (SPY) is apparently out to prove … Read more

Apple Finally Flips To Oversold

Apple (AAPL) was stuck in a trading range for the past five months. For much of that trading range, AAPL neatly pivoted around its 50-day moving average (DMA). I noticed these combined behaviors starting around early May. I have written about them and traded them. Today, July 9th, AAPL finally dropped out of the trading … Read more

T2108 Update (July 8, 2015) – Dancing Around Oversold As China Flirts With Dysfunction

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more