One Chart That Rings An Alarm For Future Chinese Consumption

“…emerging markets experienced a more recent run-up in indebtedness, which started around the time of the crisis, and is still continuing. In other words, their deleveraging has not even begun. This has the potential to create persistent spending disappointments, if monetary policy is unable to stimulate other spending sufficiently.” – “Debt, Demographics and the Distribution … Read more

Alternatives to Fortescue Metal’s Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Now that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has cleared Andrew Forrest of violating laws against anti-competitive business practices, the CEO of Fortescue Metals Group (FSUGY) (FSUMY) wasted no time … Read more

Another Look At the Reinforcing Dynamics of the Iron Ore Industry

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Clyde Russell is a columnist who often writes about iron ore for Reuters. His latest piece, “Who’s behaving rationally in iron ore, steel? Everybody and nobody,” discusses some common themes and … Read more

There Goes the Rio Tinto “Exit Strategy”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 8, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Under pressure from investors, Glenore Plc (GLNCY), the world’s largest corporate player in the commodities market, recently announced a plan to slash as much as $10.2B in debt by offering additional … Read more

How to Trade the Change In Narrative and Momentum for Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my tenets from the (revised) “Commodity Crash Playbook” is to respect momentum and trends in commodity trading and investing… {snip} Iron ore has become a fascinating case in point. … Read more

Cliffs Natural Resources CEO Yearns for Iron Ore Collusion, uh, Cooperation

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 12, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) When I last wrote about the colorful CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Lourenco Goncalves, he was lambasting the Australians for manipulating their currency as a last desperate measure to save … Read more

Negative Feedback Loops Should Continue Pressuring Iron Ore Prices Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {April 8, 2015 addendum: negative feedback loop is not the accurate term. I should have left it at feedback loops or even destructive feedback loops} {snip} {snip} There is every reason … Read more

Market Trends Continue To Swirl Inconsistently Around Rising Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The mixed signals from financial markets continue as interest rates continue to climb. In fact, the steady rise in rates is the main feature within a swirl of inconsistent patterns. The … Read more

Time to Pare Back Bullish Positions In the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two weeks ago, I noted that as long as the Australian dollar (FXA) maintained its stubborn strength, it made sense to play the currency long versus the weakening Japanese yen … Read more

BHP’s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) BHP Billiton (BHP) Chairman Jacques Nasser raised eyebrows in a discussion with reporters on Wednesday, May 16th when he indicated that commodity prices are likely to keep falling for now: “The … Read more