ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I often use the Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (JPY) as a proxy for the market’s risk tolerance. If AUD/JPY is rising, the market is bullish. If AUD/JPY is falling, the market is bearish. The correlation is not as consistent as I would like, so I use it with caution, caveats, and context. … Read more
AT40 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit an intraday low of 9.4%, oversold day #3) AT200 = 32.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (intraday low of 30.0%) VIX = 21.3 (a decrease of 14.7%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of … Read more
AT40 = 11.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2) AT200 = 31.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs () VIX = 23.0 (an increase of 44.0%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The market sell-off is unfolding quickly. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above … Read more
AT40 = 33.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (was as low 31.9%) AT200 = 47.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.0 (was as high as 15.8) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 is only 1.0% off its all-time high, yet extremes and … Read more
AT40 = 41.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is stretched yet again based on AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more
General Electric (GE) dropped 4.0% for a fourth straight day of high volume selling. At $11.27/share GE sits at a stomach-churning 9-year low. Source: TradingView GE’s early June expulsion from the Dow Jones Industrial Index seemed like such natural ignition for a bottom that even CNBC’s Jim Cramer got off the fence to declare the … Read more
AT40 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week the stock market made history by delivering the longest bull market in history. Tonight on Nightly Business Report, markets are … Read more
Gold, and by extension the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has had a rough year. However, based on a historic flip in speculative positioning in gold futures, a bottom is likely in for GLD. According to the tweet and chart below, the net speculative positioning in gold recently went net negative for the first time in … Read more
AT40 = 47.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary I typically consider the market stretched to the downside when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving … Read more
AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more