ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market leaned into a melt-up as a constant stream of IPOs signaled risk-on appetite even as a massive downward revisions in jobs in the 12 months through March, 2025 implied more than expected economic weakness ahead. Rate cuts beckon as a result of this broadening weakness, and Wall Street has … Read more
The Extremes I look for opportunities when markets overreact to sentiment extremes. The recent drama over the logo change for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc (CBRL) provided a textbook case. A redesign consistent with modern branding aesthetics set off a social media backlash, fueled by cultural politics and amplified by high-profile voices. In the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In a flashback to August’s opening trading salvo, September trading started with a sharp pullback. The decline fit the standard theme of “professional” traders and investors returning from summer vacations to take profits from a market levitating on low volume vapors. However, sensing redux price action, the market’s persistent buyers jumped right … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The month of August featured three distinctly strong expansions of market breadth. The last expansion featured the largest single-day expansion I have ever seen. In between these episodes, the market showed signs of exhaustion. The latest exhaustion is centered on the AI trade. NVDA earnings slightly disappointed and included slowing revenue growth … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week delivered one of the most bullish one-day expansions of market breadth I have ever seen. On Friday, August 22nd, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole confab and gave financial markets sufficiently dovish signals to reignite a rally that had waned most of the week. Big cap … Read more