Home Builder Sentiment Springs Back to Life

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 15, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It appears the National Association of Home Builders(NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) has indeed stabilized. Last month, I interpreted a small recovery in the HMI from a March plunge as … Read more

Baby Boomers Seem Unlikely to Mass Exit from Single-Family Detached Homes Anytime Soon

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 14, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Recent research provide additional color to the last entry in my on-going series on Baby Boomers and the housing market: “Cash Buyers And Optimism Counter The Notion Of An Imminent Housing … Read more

Cash Buyers and Optimism Counter the Notion of An Imminent Housing Crisis Triggered By Baby Boomers

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 3, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last year, I wrote a series of articles expressing my skepticism about the notion that an abandonment of homes by incapacitated Baby Boomers would cause America’s next housing crisis (for example, … Read more

Residential Employment Plows Ahead As Housing Indicators Stabilize

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest U.S. non-farm employment report showed another strong print for employment in residential construction. For the 31st month in a row, seasonally adjusted employment in residential construction showed year-over-year growth. … Read more

An Unexpected Drop In Leasing Velocity Helps Reset RealPage

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) RealPage (RP) provides software for revenue management and other related services for managers of rental housing. After noticing that the stock had dropped over 20% in after hours trading following the … Read more

Chart Review Madness: Bearishness Abounds

As promised, here is a cornucopia of charts. To me, this is still just a small sample of the very enticing and intriguing charts popping up everywhere as more evidence builds that some kind of top is getting printed in the stock market. In particular, note my selection of momentum charts that are wobbling, weakening, … Read more

Continued Momentum in Residential Construction Employment Doesn’t Stop Slide in Home Builder Shares

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) After employment in residential construction put on a surprisingly strong showing amidst a generally dismal January employment report, I decided to keep closer tabs on this important indicator of health in … Read more

Do Not Get Distracted By Insider Stock Sales at Toll Brothers

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 19, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Back in 2009, I was as bearish on housing as anyone. For example, I wrote two pieces pointing to massive insider stock sales at Toll Brothers (TOL) as evidence that company … Read more

Drop In the Housing Market Index Ends Upward Momentum of the Recovery, Delays Spring Sunshine

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 19, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo demonstrates a very large and sudden drop in the confidence of home builders in … Read more