ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced a hiccup in an otherwise strong post-oversold bounce. The Q1 GDP report revealed a small contraction that surprisingly caught the market off guard. However, this contraction was driven primarily by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariffs. I assume a lot of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week marked an important shift as the stock market experienced overdue relief. Most notably, there were no major headlines causing significant disruptions in financial markets. Instead, the market continued the theme of recovery from the previous week, driven by policymakers pivoting their messaging about the economic chaos triggered by policies and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market fell into chaos all over again as the U.S. retaliated against China’s tariff retaliation, hiking tariffs up to 104%. This escalation halted a rally that started as solid follow-through from the bullish engulfing bottom from the previous trading day. The whipsaw action underscored the fragility of technical setups in … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The trading week started with a powerful jolt to the market. The major catalyst was a rumor that President Trump was considering a 90-day delay on tariffs, triggering a nearly 30-minute, $2.5 trillion rally. While ultimately unfounded, the rumor represented the kind of response markets expect: when financial markets panic, policy-makers panic. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A good friend of mine introduced me to the phrase – now we’re cooking with gas! In today’s context, this phrase refers to some startling developments in the rolling crash in the stock market. The technical damage was thorough, unrelenting, and nearly merciless. Chaos in economic policy chaos has fully transferred into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary We closed out March and Q1 with a wild day of trading. As captured in a headline from Yahoo Finance, “Wall Street closes out worst quarter since 2022,” sentiment was deeply negative. Headlines about tariffs, economic troubles, and Coinbase’s (COIN) worst quarter since the FTX collapse added to the sense of dread. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 delivered only a brief respite from the bear market when it broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) to start the week. Two days later, the bear market reasserted itself. Another two days later, the sellers punched an exclamation mark on the bear market as a “hot” inflation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market presented mixed messages amidst ongoing volatility. While a “softer than expected” CPI report presumably triggered an initial fragile rebound, I see persistent underlying weakness. Apple Inc. (AAPL) represents this fragility with a continued bearish breakdown casting a shadow over the broader market. Apple Inc. (AAPL) declined 1.8% and confirmed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A DeepSeek dive stole the headlines from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, tariff headlines refused to go away. Assuming you have already gotten your fill of DeepSeek headlines, I will just summarize the drama by saying a Chinese start-up has apparently completely up-ended the economics of the AI universe. DeepSeek’s … Read more