ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in November, 2024? October’s reckoning transformed into a rebound with a boost from a sharp drop in long-term interest rates. The partial recovery came just in time for the seasonal strength in the stocks of home builders. The housing data for October showed mixed … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in October, 2024? A reckoning that I anticipated finally came in the form of sharply lower prices for the shares of home builders. After resisting rising mortgage rates for a month, the stock market lost its appetite. Earnings have brought a dose of reality … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in September, 2024? Existing home sales fell into a deeper downturn while new home sales maintained an uptrend from recent troughs. Rate cuts are helping to bottom out sentiment for builders. However, great anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve gave way … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in August, 2024? Financial markets quickly threw out a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. Hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continued to impact both the data and stock prices. While the on-going decline in mortgage rates has failed to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary At the beginning of August, you might have looked uninformed predicting that the S&P 500 would end up printing its 4th straight monthly gain. At its lows, the index wiped out gains from the previous two months and almost reversed May as well. Now, the index hovers just below its all-time high … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Welcome to the start of the stock market’s three most dangerous months of the year. A weak jobs report for July helped to send market sentiment into a sharp reversal. The bad economic news suddenly turned the prospect of rate cuts into something to fear. These rate cut fears spun the market … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in July, 2024? July started with a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. The downgrade at the time confirmed the implications of a bust for the spring selling season. My lamentations about the bust seemed confirmed by further deterioration in the housing … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in June, 2024? The broadening weakness I described in my previous Housing Market Review continued and confirmed a spring selling season bust. The data in June delivered a picture of a sales slowdown accompanied by increasing affordability squeezes despite inventory increases. Housing Stocks The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The week’s trading was punctuated by a single day with an all-time high on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in the wake of strong readings on the May S&P Global US Services PMI and the May ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Unfortunately, that price milestone failed to change the contour of market breath … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in May, 2024? Homebuilders suddenly soured on the prospects for the housing market. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out signs of topping and sales headwinds. The data in May delivered a picture of broadening weakness as a follow-through to the warnings … Read more