Above the 40 (October 23, 2018) – A Classic Oversold Bounce Leaves Behind Critical Breakdowns

AT40 = 13.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 5th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period (as low as 10.6%) AT200 = 30.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (as low as 26.7%) VIX = 20.7 (as high as 24.7) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary … Read more

Above the 40 (October 19, 2018) – Swirling Signals from 200DMA Drama And Bearish Breakdowns

AT40 = 16.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 3rd day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 33.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.9 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Friday was a day with a head-spinning mix of reassuring and ominous … Read more

Above the 40 (September 28, 2018) – An Over-Stretched Market With Notable Anchors

AT40 = 41.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is stretched yet again based on AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more

Above the 40 (September 14, 2018) – Stock Market’s Unenthusiastic Rebound from Stretched Conditions

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I flipped cautiously bullish last week. As I suspected, the prospects for a bounce were not as good as the previous … Read more

Above the 40 (August 17, 2018) – Another Picture-Perfect Rebound Ends Stretched Conditions

AT40 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The recovery from the February swoon has been full of nearly predictable bounces: whether it was oversold trading conditions or support at … Read more

Above the 40 (August 10, 2018) – Facing Fresh Macro Challenges and Lacking Technical Confirmations, the S&P 500 Stalls Under All-Time Highs

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more

Above the 40 (August 2, 2018) – A Trillion Dollar Tailwind As Apple Helps Will the Stock Market Higher

AT40 = 52.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The technical winds may be on the upswing. Last weekend, I pointed out how bearish divergence preceded and warned of the sell-off … Read more

Above the 40 (July 27, 2018) – Stock Market Weaknesses Confirm Earlier Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 49.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to gain on the week, but it was not easy. Each day of the week delivered new … Read more

Above the 40 (June 29, 2018) – Sellers Reward A Weak Stock Market Bounce With A Bearish Fade

AT40 = 48.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.1 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The market’s gains the last two days validated my expectation for a relief bounce. I used this bounce to make more bearish … Read more

Above the 40 (June 6, 2018) – A Broadening Stock Rally Stretches Toward Important Threshold

AT40 = 68.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 11.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary It is tough avoiding a flip on my short-term trading call to bullish, but I am sticking by my … Read more