ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Two weeks ago I wrote how a “A DeepSeek Dive and A Tariff Toll” created the next shift in the market’s technical outlook. I stepped back from a bullish position on the market as a result. Now, a familiar theme has unfolded with the stock market looking ready to leave its latest … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A DeepSeek dive stole the headlines from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, tariff headlines refused to go away. Assuming you have already gotten your fill of DeepSeek headlines, I will just summarize the drama by saying a Chinese start-up has apparently completely up-ended the economics of the AI universe. DeepSeek’s … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in January, 2025? The bear market that scarred the landscape for builders came to an end just ahead of an important December inflation report. Relief from that report combined with relief from a builder’s earnings report helped to seal the deal on the three … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, I concluded that the stock market had reached “oversold enough” trading conditions. Last week confirmed an oversold low as market breadth rapidly broadened and supported an all-time high redux for the S&P 500. Yet, this revival comes with important caveats. Uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve’s next moves even … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The week opened with market breadth dropping to within five percentage points of the oversold threshold. This was the closest encounter with oversold since late October, 2023. The stock market never looked back from there. A favorable mid-week inflation report helped propel the stock market with the assistance of declining long-term bond … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Writing about financial markets always feels surreal when tragedy and disaster dominate the news headlines. My cognitive dissonance gets particularly poignant when the stock market does not reflect the scale and scope of events. As massive fires rage in Los Angeles causing to-date $135B to $150B in economic losses and loss of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The new year of 2025 got off to a rocky start with the weight of the last Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy pushing fresh losses across the indices. I assumed this price action signaled the market’s readiness to cash in on the capital gains that it did not want to register … Read more
Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season typically represents the year’s peak of activity in the housing market. During this time, households try to settle into a new home before summer travel or well ahead of the Fall start to the next school year. Like retailers who eagerly anticipate … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in December, 2024? Suddenly, the housing market is mired in a broken narrative after a brief drop in bond yields created a (fake) boost in November. The weakness showed up in stubbornly high mortgage rates and the dour commentary from earnings reports. The data … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Investopedia defines the Santa Rally very precisely: “A Santa Claus rally refers to the sustained increases found in the stock market during the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January.” Based on this definition, Santa is failing…and just as the stock market risks a January … Read more