ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in March, 2016. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was accompanying the market on an extended rally from the February lows. Resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) slowed down the advance. THIS month, ITB cleanly broke through resistance only to come to … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in February, 2016. At the time, sentiment and data ahead of the Spring selling season was not as strong as I had anticipated. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has gained little since then and has even stalled out at resistance at its 200-day moving average … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in December, 2015. At the time, I saw the market coiling like a spring. Instead of springing forth, housing market stocks are in big retreat. Recession fears likely have a lot to do with the declines. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) is now down a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) A year ago, KB Home (KBH) reported Q4 2014 earnings that greatly disappointed financial markets. The stock lost 16% in the immediate aftermath. The stock took 5 months to recover only … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 13, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a month ago, analysts from KBW described a seasonal trade on home builders. {snip} I took a slightly different perspective on this seasonality to make the pattern stand out and … Read more
When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more
At the end of 2015, I wrote about the critical tests facing LGI Homes (LGIH). After another strong monthly closing report, LGIH seems more likely to pass the test of financial performance in coming earnings reports, but the technical test remains in place. LGIH reported record results for a single month in December, 2015: 433 … Read more
The housing market is moving in slow motion. The recovery is in place but locked into low gear. Until conditions change materially, it makes sense to place my coverage of the overall housing market into a monthly cadence. The reporting loses a bit of timeliness, but it should gain more cohesiveness with more connected dots. … Read more