Turkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Since I laid out a post-election trading strategy on the Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) two weeks ago, events have gone on a very slow burn. The currency and the stock market have … Read more

Strong Economic News Bolsters the Case for the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 20, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) In my last post on the Canadian dollar (FXC), I claimed that it was time to start buying Canada while at the same time cautioning about an over-extension in the currency … Read more

Australia’s Q4 2014 Inflation Enough to Erase Momentum for February Rate Cut

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Perhaps the market was really expecting a much lower inflation reading in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia for the fourth quarter of … Read more

Gold Is Unloved But Still Not Cheap

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Friday’s U.S. employment report delivered strong results yet again. It helped increase expectations of a Fed rate hike by June as iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) and SPDR Gold Shares … Read more

Swiss National Bank Revises Forecasts Downward for Negative Inflation In 2015

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) According to the Swiss National Bank (SNB), inflation is returning to negative territory in 2015. In its December 11, 2014 assessment of monetary policy, the SNB once again adjusted its inflation … Read more

The Swiss Franc Quietly Returns to Early 2013 Levels

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) In August, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) took a series of extreme measures to attempt to arrest an accelerating strengthening in the Swiss franc (FXB). These measures culminated in establishing … Read more

Quietly the Swiss Franc Presses the Swiss National Bank’s Nerves Again

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 5, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, the Swiss franc (FXF) is nearing the 1.20 floor against the euro again. Almost three months ago, I thought the Swiss franc was hurtling toward a retest of the longstanding … Read more

The Federal Reserve’s Latest Policy Decision Frustrates Bears and Central Banks Alike

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “There is no mechanical formula.” This is the response Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave to a reporter who tried to press her on the rules and timing for the first … Read more

What I Learned Shorting the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The euro (FXE) has been one stubborn currency. The short euro trade taught me and reminded me to be patient, to stay focused on the underlying thesis until it is proven … Read more

Q4 2013 Inflation Reading Removes Australia’s Scope For Lower Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 22, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Remember last September when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) somewhat mysteriously removed the following language from its statement on monetary policy?… “The Board also judged that the inflation outlook, as … Read more