Doubling Down on the United States Oil ETF While Oil-Related Names Gain A Reprieve from Calamity

The trade on a rangebound United States Oil (USO) is now failing (see “The Commodities Crash Accelerates: Scenarios for Trading Oil” for a description). Oil has continued its collapse past the historic 2009 lows and has helped to drive USO to fresh all-time lows. Source: US. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate … Read more

Linn Energy Helps Sink Memorial Production Partners As Earnings Approach

It was an awful week for oil-related plays as oil’s price continued to drop and one energy company after another, including the titans Exxon(XOM) and Chevron (CVX), failed to provide investors much in the way of reassurance. This calamity was quite a contrast to the much higher optimism from earnings just three months ago. The … Read more

Forgo the United States Oil ETF In Favor Of the United States Gasoline ETF?

I recently read an article that attempted to dive into the nuances of trading the United States Oil ETF (USO) versus the United States Gasoline ETF (UGA). I suddenly realized that through all the nuanced comparisons the forest was being lost for the trees. Since at least 2009, UGA has greatly outperformed USO. In fact, … Read more

The Bank of Canada Confirmed A Bearish Turn for the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 24, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In the middle of this fresh decline, the Bank of Canada delivered its July Monetary Policy Report with another rate cut included. The reaction in the currency market was just … Read more

Simple Trading Scenarios for the United States Oil ETF

The United States Oil ETF (USO) is down 1.0% in 2015. At its lowest point in 2015, USO was down 23.3%. At its highest point, USO was up 2.6%. This asymmetry alone seems to suggest that USO should tend higher in the short-term. I make this assumption based on an on-going decline in volatility, measured … Read more

A Race Against Bearish Sentiment And Volatility for the United States Oil ETF

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 5, 2015, Barron’s Blogs published a short article on a large bet against volatility on United States Oil ETF (USO) called “Big Options Bet Sees Oil ETF Rangebound into … Read more

Profit Opportunities In The Federal Reserve’s Spread of Rate Scenarios

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The most striking feature of the minutes for the mid-March meeting was the Federal Reserve’s very mixed feelings toward the timing for the first rate hike: {snip} There are multiple … Read more

T2108 Update (April 2, 2015) – Let the Chopfest Continue

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (March 18, 2015) – From Market Calm to Relief

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more