Failed Breakouts Provide Buying Opportunity in the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Ever since news of Chinese banks making massive write-offs and a parallel spike in China money rates stoked renewed fears over the Chinese financial system, the Australian dollar (FXA) has pared … Read more

I Am Sticking With Gold: A Critique Of “The Golden Dilemma”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} When King uttered these words in his final Inflation Report as Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), there was no sudden surge in interest rates or sell-offs in financial … Read more

The Australian Dollar Strengthens In the Absence Of A New Catalyst for Rate Cuts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Time to swivel heads around on the Australian dollar (FXA) yet again. In “Australian Dollar’s Relief Rally Ends With The Latest RBA Meeting Minutes,” I concluded that the Reserve Bank of … Read more

2013 Forex Outlook: More of the Same for the British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Most of the clues required for the British pound’s direction for 2013 are contained in the Bank of England’s last Inflation Report back on November 14, 2012. The British pound enjoyed … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Balks On Inflation – Dollar’s Rise Provides Fresh Shorting Opportunity

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The timing of The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate cuts is starting to look like a random number generator. In its latest statement on monetary policy (Nov 6th in Australia), … Read more

links for 2011-09-24

Argentina targets news reporting of inflation data – Yahoo! News A judge has subpoenaed six newspapers for the names and phone numbers of all reporters and editors who have covered Argentina's economy the past five years, so they can be called as witnesses against their sources. News organizations called it an attempt to censor and … Read more

A Case for the Importance of Headline Inflation from James Bullard

(Originally appeared in Inflation Watch) The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis just published an article written by James Bullard, a non-voting member of the Federal Reserve and President of the St. Louis Fed, called “Measuring Inflation: The Core Is Rotten.” It is based on a speech Bullard delivered two months ago to the Money … Read more

A Danger of Inflation: The Misallocation of Resources on the Way to Sustained Price Increases

(Adapted from original article in Inflation Watch) In January of this year, Professor Russ Roberts of George Mason University invited fellow economics professor Don Boudreaux to address “Monetary Misunderstandings” on the weekly podcast “EconTalk.” From the synopsis: “Don Boudreaux of George Mason University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts on some of the common misunderstandings … Read more

China’s Inflation Could Be Worse but Stimulus Money Is Sitting In Investments, Not Consumption

Originally posted on “Inflation Watch“… Nightly Business Report produced a short video segment describing China’s inflation woes (transcript included) called “China’s Inflation Battle.” The commentator identifies China’s RMB¥ 4 trillion stimulus program (around $585B USD at the time) as the original source of the inflation and takes us to Pengshui, 1000 miles from Beijing, to … Read more

Dollar Survives Support…but Not for Much Longer

The dollar approached critical support last week and neatly bounced just as I had hoped and expected. However, as I examine the technical prospects for an extended rally, I cannot shake a resurgent sense of bearishness about the dollar. The daily chart shows some pretty tough overhead resistance awaits any further rally in the dollar: … Read more