A Slight Summer Cooling from Spring’s Peak – Housing Market Review

cooling (Yosemite waterfall)

Housing Market Intro and Summary May’s housing market was remarkably strong and represented the peak velocity of the spring selling season. June followed up with more relative strength but a slight sequential cooling as mortgage rates continued a march back to the top of the recent range. Housing starts, new home sales, and existing home … Read more

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc: Striding Into A Normalized Business Pace

Overall Assessment I am bullish on Tri Pointe Homes (TPH). The Tri Pointe Homes Q2 2021 earnings report delivered strong results, including records for home sales revenue, pre-tax profit, and the value of the backlog. Management reported familiar themes of strong demand and constrained inventories across demographics and geographies. Margins improved as the company once … Read more

Million-Dollar Plus Homes and A Race for Affordability In California

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last month, I wrote about the strong sales activity in million dollar plus homes in Canada that are occurring despite poor jobs growth in the country. It was an interesting study … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more

TRI Pointe Homes Versus Whirlpool: A Disconnect In Response to Bullish Housing-Related Reports

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) reported very strong earnings for the second quarter of 2013. {snip} Year-over-year results were strong, and TPH raised guidance for the year. {snip} Based on strong demand, … Read more

Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges in 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late November, 2012, I made a list of my homebuilder picks for 2013. I combined valuation, price changes, and short interest to build the list. Almost 6 months later, it … Read more

California Soon To Experience A New Construction Boom

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 10, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …a fascinating story about a 2-man team, a real estate agent and a contractor, who have gone from boom to bust and hopeful boom. They went from a whiteboard full … Read more

A Concentrated Way to Play Rapid Price Appreciation In The California Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) is a 4-year old company based in Irvine, California that on January 31, 2013 became the first homebuilder to go IPO since 2004. The Starwood Fund, managed … Read more