Market Calm Shattered – Tariff Shock Hits S&P’s Critical Support – The Market Breadth

AT50 (MMFI) confirmed overbought resistance and closed the gap higher from the China trade war ceasefire. This rejection is bearish by itself but support for the indices remains intact.

Stock Market Commentary A market calm emerged thanks to a pause on reciprocal tariffs and then a ceasefire in the US vs China trade war. This market calm shattered as a new tariff shock came in the form of President Trump threatening the European Union (EU) with a 50% tariff while at the same time … Read more

A Cliffhanger Under (200DMA) Resistance – The Market Breadth

A Cliffhanger Under (200DMA) Resistance - The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary The market ended the week on a quiet cliffhanger as major indices hovered under critical resistance levels. A defining theme was the muted reaction to major headlines, particularly around trade and stagflation risks. Despite the looming shadow of stagflation – a term not explicitly mentioned but clearly implied in last week’s Fed … Read more

Overdue Relief Comes to the Stock Market – The Market Breadth

Overdue Relief Comes to the Stock Market

Stock Market Commentary Last week marked an important shift as the stock market experienced overdue relief. Most notably, there were no major headlines causing significant disruptions in financial markets. Instead, the market continued the theme of recovery from the previous week, driven by policymakers pivoting their messaging about the economic chaos triggered by policies and … Read more

NVDA and the Fed Lock In Overhead Resistance As Gold Soars – The Market Breadth

NVDA and the Fed Lock In Overhead Resistance As Gold Soars

Stock Market Commentary Overhead resistance once prevailed over expanding market breadth, particularly over the past two trading sessions. The dominant headline was Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warning about the difficult scenario facing the Fed due to tariffs. I interpreted his message as an intention to avoid responding as long as possible. For a market pricing … Read more

A Market Breadth Breakdown Belies Tech Strength – The Market Breadth

A Market Breadth Breakdown Belies Tech Strength – The Market Breadth (Source: Kecko on Flickr at https://www.flickr.com/photos/70981241@N00/16394025055)

Stock Market Commentary Inflation was the big story last week. I covered the details in “Bonds Try to Weigh on A Market Trying Harder to Look Past Stabilizing Inflation“. The stock market had a curiously mixed reaction that highlighted an on-going bearish divergence for the month of December. A market breadth breakdown contradicted impressive strength … Read more

Support Holds Firm Ahead of Holiday Week – The Market Breadth

Support Holds Firm Ahead of Holiday Week – The Market Breadth (Credit: David Kingham, https://www.flickr.com/photos/31583394@N04/8406338206)

Stock Market Commentary Imagine that. Key support holds firm across the major indices. A telling post-election reversal turned into proof positive that unrelenting bulls remain all-in for the stock market. Not even a further escalation in World War 3 brought pause to the rebounds off support (Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine and … Read more

Fades Press On Market Supports Ahead of the Election – The Market Breadth

fade (Credit: Hercules Wrestling the Bull by carfull...from Wyoming on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary Fades were on display, especially on Thursday, as the stock market showed signs of exhaustion. Bad news in and for the semiconductor industry seemed to motivate sellers. For example, earnings for Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) seemed to release some steam on hyped expectations for the AI chips both companies will … Read more

Stocks Stand By While China and Yen Surge – The Market Breadth

stand by (Credit: Mark Hodson Photos, www.101holidays.co.uk)

Stock Market Commentary The U.S. stock market hardly reflected last week’s action-packed news. China scrambled to address a weakening economy with a massive stimulus program with news rolling nearly all week. In Japan, voters elected a Prime Minister who favors a stronger currency in the Japanese yen (FXY). Capping the anti-climactic feeling in U.S. stocks, … Read more

It’s Already A Below Average September. Now What? – The Market Breadth

quick end

Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 is down 4.1% month-to-date. This loss makes this month a below average September for a maximum drawdown and fulfills September’s reputation as one of the index’s three most dangerous months of the year. As I noted last week, August’s extreme drawdown significantly increased the risk of September being worse … Read more

SearchGPT Shoves Google to A Footnote for the Generative AI Trade

Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) suffered a confirmed 50DMA breakdown on the heels of poorly received earnings and next SearchGPT.

Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) was my favorite stock in my generative AI trade. No more. After OpenAI announced SearchGPT, GOOG fell 3.0%. The decline followed a 5.0% post-earnings loss and confirmed a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below). While SearchGPT is still a prototype, even the idea … Read more