Above the 40 (January 18, 2019) – Index Breakouts Propel the Stock Market Into Overbought Territory

AT40 = 76.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 27.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (6-week high)VIX = 17.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I noted in my last post that the signs of exhaustion in the major indices gave way to more … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more

Above the 40 (December 24, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: An Epic Reversal, Historic Depths, and an End to Hubris

AT40 = 3.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #7, 10-year low!)AT200 = 8.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (9 1/2- year low!)VIX = 36.1 (1-day gain of 20.0%, 10 1/2- month high)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (oh so many caveats below!) Commentary Although it’s been … Read more

S&P 500: A Critical Juncture Amid Historically Bad Milestones

It seems like the odds favor a strong bounce to close the year if only to bring the December drawdown a little closer to historic norms. At least the timing would be right given deep oversold trading conditions. Of course, a “reversion to the mean” is not reason enough to expect a strong year-end rally. … Read more

Above the 40 (December 17, 2018) – A Deeply Oversold Market No Longer Expects Rate Hikes in 2019

AT40 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2)AT200 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) CommentaryThe week started as I expected based on the technical setup on Friday that I discussed in the … Read more

Above the 40 (December 14, 2018) – A Bear-Burdened Stock Market Dropped to Oversold and Passed A Trade-Positive Tweet

AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day oversold)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (34-month low)VIX = 21.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe stock market is oversold again as a bearish divergence to start the week came to its “logical conclusion.” AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Above the 40 (December 7, 2018) – Right Back Where the Stock Market Started, But Worse

AT40 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just off a 32-month low)VIX = 23.2 (as high as 24.7)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryI am surprised the stock market has yet to close in oversold conditions. AT40 (T2108), the … Read more

Above the 40 (November 30, 2018) – Market Sentiment Quickly Transforms: Enter the “Cramer Bottom”

AT40 = 44.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 18.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week was a week where the stock market seemed to force its way into the endzone … Read more

Above the 40 (October 31, 2018) – Small Bearish Divergence Extends Oversold Period Despite Rallies

AT40 = 16.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (as high as 19.95%) – 11th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 29.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.2 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The push out of oversold conditions did not … Read more

Above the 40 (October 24, 2018) – The Second Derivative Is Here for the Stock Market (New Oversold Extremes)

AT40 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 6th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period (as low as 10.6%) AT200 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (as low as 26.7%) VIX = 25.2 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Time to take a … Read more