Market Breadth Ends Q1 with An Important Breakout – The Market Breadth

Market Breadth Ends Q1 with An Important Breakout - The Market Breadth (Credit: I Get Up and Nothing Gets Me Down! JUMP!, by Guian Bolisay https://www.flickr.com/photos/44312356@N04/6187257947)

Stock Market Commentary The stock market put an exclamation point on the end of the previous week’s statement performance. Market breadth made an important breakout to a 2-month high and almost looks ready to return to overbought conditions. Such a milestone would finally align my favorite technical indicator with the relentless strength in the stock … Read more

Speculating On Innovation ETFs Versus Big Cap Tech: ARKK vs IPO vs QQQ

speculate (Credit: Booby Stare-Down by Scott Ableman on Flickr)

This year has been a surprisingly good year for speculating. The race to the end of 2023 looked like it priced in a lot of good news, but the good news (in price action) continues apace year-to-date. Thus, I decided to take a fresh look at last year’s claim: “Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile … Read more

Beyond Believable, Beyond Meat

Is Beyond Meat THE Speculative Trade for the New Year

Sometimes it pays to be stubborn. In December, I asked whether Beyond Meat (BYND) would be the speculative trade of the new year. I presented a simple thesis that managed to work out. However, the path from A to B was totally unexpected, and I broke rules along the way. In response to earnings, BYND … Read more

How Price Action Can Betray Good News: Stock Spotlight TWLO and FVRR

How Price Action Can Betray Good News

I am a strong advocate for paying attention to the message in price action. In this blog, I recount example after example of how and why price action matters for both short-term trades and long-term investments. One of my favorite suspects is non-confirming price action, especially when negative price action betrays good news. When a … Read more

How to Use ChatGPT to Test Theories on Stock Prices

Percentage of days IWM experiences a gain based on the combined performance of QQQ and IWM (February 12, 2019 to February 8, 2024)

I have a good friend that comes up with interesting theories about relationships in the stock market. Recently, he claimed that “more often than not”, on a day where the big cap stocks gain and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) does not gain, IWM will experience a daily gain on the next trading day. … Read more