ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Housing Market Intro and Summary May’s housing market was remarkably strong and represented the peak velocity of the spring selling season. June followed up with more relative strength but a slight sequential cooling as mortgage rates continued a march back to the top of the recent range. Housing starts, new home sales, and existing home … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks survived its first major test. The numbers for the first half of the year put an exclamation on a rally that has defied most expectations. The S&P 500 (SPY) had its 12th best first half since at least 1933 (per Cater Braxton Worth) with a 15.9% gain … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Market breadth almost reached overbought trading territory last week. The Federal Reserve is issuing yet another missive on monetary policy this coming Wednesday. The market’s script is arranged for the potential drama of a collision between the euphoria of overbought trading and a Federal Reserve that is eager to moderate the market … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Flying on the wings of an AI (artificial intelligence) gold rush, the NASDAQ may have delivered the swan song for its bear market. The latest rush of buying, sent the NASDAQ above its bear market line for the first time since last August. The path to this breakthrough was fraught with yet … Read more
NVIDIA Races Ahead Money manager Cathie Wood of ARK Invest is known for being unconventional by making concentrated bets on highly speculative companies, what Wood calls betting on innovation that solves problems. So of course Wood has AI-related bets in the various ARK funds. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) in particular holds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week I described how to reconcile a stock market that was both complacent and oversold. The stock market proceeded from there to double down on complacency while rebounding from “close enough to oversold” levels for market breadth. Traders are showing no worries as the volatility index (VIX) plunged to levels last … Read more
Bitcoin Uptrend Analysis The trend is a friend for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) again. All three of the major moving averages are pointing upward for Bitcoin. This synchronization of the 20-day moving average (DMA), 50DMA, and the 200DMA supports a buy-the-dip strategy after the big March breakout in the wake of the banking Panic of 2023. Assuming … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Real estate is local. Regional banks often sit at the heart of local communities. So it seems odd writing about the relative strength in the housing market in the wake of the Panic of 2023 that featured the historic collapse of two regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature … Read more
The conditions for bottoming in the ARK funds started to diverge a bit in late June. While the bottoming patterns differed, the ARK bottom synchronized with the general market’s bottom. Those conditions were born from the deeply oversold conditions that arrived in June. At that time, I interpreted the turmoil as the early days of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Fears of a recession are running high as the Federal Reserve scrambles to normalize monetary policy. The Fed is racing against an economic clock. It needs to get rates as close to the “neutral rate” as possible before a weakening economy finally forces them to reverse course. The higher the rates when … Read more