ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary June’s housing market showed some evidence of slight cooling with the Spring selling season in its late stages. July’s housing data showed a widening divergence in fortunes between an on-going decline in existing single-family home sales and resilient activity for new single-family homes. Enveloping both markets are elevated pricing pressures. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Jackson Hole did not provide the market moving spark that I expected. Instead, soft economic news delivered the decisive interpretation of future monetary policy required to provide a fresh catalyst for stocks. The bullish spark caught me flat-footed as I was leaning into imminent oversold trading conditions. Fortunately, the sentiment shift was … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Stocks stumbled their way through a week fraught with hopes and fears for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. With looming oversold conditions, the most significant technical event occurred with a bearish engulfing right under important resistance levels for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The relief buying that … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The annual Jackson Hole confab of central bankers starts this coming Thursday. Almost like technical poetry, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are back to the highs directly preceding Jackson Hole 2022. Depending on your perspective, this Jackson Hole redux either represents a bullish confirmation of the market’s resilience after 18 months … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan’s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I … Read more
Last Friday’s 29% plunge in Opera Limited (OPRA) seized the attention of the company and its “cornerstone shareholder” Kunlun Tech Limited. With the swiftness of a crisis management team, the two combined to sing a sweeter tune for investors. In a follow-up SEC filing, Opera Limited clarified that last week’s announced shelf filing simply replaces … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks survived its first major test. The numbers for the first half of the year put an exclamation on a rally that has defied most expectations. The S&P 500 (SPY) had its 12th best first half since at least 1933 (per Cater Braxton Worth) with a 15.9% gain … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks is facing its first real test. In the middle of the week, the rally finally failed at the threshold of overbought market breadth. The stock market closed the week with market breadth confirming the end of the primary rally and the start of an important test of … Read more