ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 53.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The Federal Reserve effectively reaffirmed its commitment to two more rate hikes this year. The S&P 500 (SPY) yawned, but … Read more
Ahead of the May decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, I concluded that the stars had aligned for a potential (sharp) relief rally for the SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). In that post, I extrapolated from the market’s waning enthusiasm for two more rate hikes in 2017. … Read more
Market expectations for a June rate hike remain as solid as ever. However, expectations for two more rate hikes in 2017 have wavered. A day ahead of the release of the next decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Fed Fund futures pricing in two rate hikes by December (assuming 25 basis point … Read more
The verdict is almost in: the Turkish lira is overcoming its headwinds. After the results of Turkey’s constitutional referendum in mid-April, the Turkish lira bounced around in indecision. Against the U.S. dollar, the indecision ended in conjunction with the April 28th release on monetary policy from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). … Read more
AT40 = 58.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The last week of trading for April transitioned readily from the French Fly that sent financial markets into celebratory dances … Read more
The list of asset prices that have completely reversed their post-election gains continues to expand. Last week, iron ore officially joined that list…and the sell-off continues apace. On Tuesday night, April 18th, Business Insider reported: “According to Metal Bulletin, the spot price for benchmark 62% fines fell 4.6% to $63.20 a dry tonne, extending its … Read more
AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The 50-day moving average (DMA) is no longer golden. It figures that on a day … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 5, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently released its monthly market report for February. February was of course the month of an accelerated price decline for cocoa. Cocoa hit, and retested, a … Read more
AT40 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The timetable for a May end to this period of extremely low volatility looks like … Read more
Do not tell silver speculators that the Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report showed that silver speculators ran net long contracts to a new high, levels not seen since at least 2008. The increase in open interest confirmed the bullishness of silver speculators. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitment … Read more